Ahead of this weekend’s unique matchup at Bristol Motor Speedway, the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds start their engines on a three-game series in Cincinnati on Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: Cincinnati is firmly in the playoff hunt — and acting like it. The Reds are favoured to win tonight’s series opener against a downtrodden Braves squad that recently placed Ronald Acuna Jr. on the injured list.
Check out my Braves vs. Reds predictions, featuring Elly De La Cruz and Jurickson Profar.
Braves vs. Reds predictions
Parlay: Reds ML | De La Cruz over 1.5 bases | Profar over 0.5 hits (+300)
Reds moneyline (-162): Entering the final two months of the season, these teams are moving in distinctly different directions.
The Reds (57-52), who haven’t won a playoff game since 2012, have been modest deadline buyers. They’re three games out of a wild-card spot, so why not?
The Braves (45-62), who won their division in six of the previous seven years, could be one of the first teams mathematically eliminated weeks from now. Their entire Opening Day rotation is on the 60-day IL.
Cincinnati has simply been a much better team, and it has the much better starter on the mound Thursday.
Andrew Abbott is 8-1 with a 2.09 ERA for Cincy this season. He tossed 5.0 scoreless innings (with eight Ks) vs. the Braves back in May.
Atlanta’s Carlos Carrasco, meanwhile, has a 5.91 ERA in eight outings. The Braves are 1-4 in his past five starts.
MLB SGP legs
De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases (-114): I backed De La Cruz as my favourite home run pick on Thursday night … even though he hasn’t homered in 29 games.
Despite a bit of a power outage, De La Cruz has remained productive at the plate. In fact, his .804 OPS during the homerless streak is still well above league average (.716).
Dating back to June 21, the switch-hitting shortstop is 18-14 vs. this prop, averaging 1.9 bases per game.
He’s a far more fearsome hitter from the left side, with a .930 OPS this season.
The right-handed Carrasco has a seventh-percentile xBA (.290) and a sixth-percentile barrel rate (12.1%), per Baseball Savant. He gives up a ton of hard contact, and De La Cruz should follow suit.
Profar over 0.5 hits (-240): Profar’s all-star campaign last year looks like an anomaly, but the outfielder still plays at an all-star-calibre pace when a southpaw is on the mound.
Since 2023, Profar has a .292/.371/.482 slash line against left-handed pitching.
Abbott is having an excellent season, but one hit for Profar doesn’t seem like much of an ask when he has the platoon advantage.
Profar has cashed this bet in 13 of his past 17 games.
Braves vs. Reds predictions made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 07/31/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.