Two hot power bats and a starting pitcher are featured in today’s top MLB prop picks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: I’m backing Kyle Stowers and Randy Arozarena on their total bases props. Both enter Wednesday swinging well and have favourable matchups tonight.
Check out my best MLB prop bets for July 30, which includes a prediction on Los Angeles Angels starter Jose Soriano.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Stowers over 1.5 total bases (+130)
This is an enticing price for one of baseball’s most productive hitters in July.
Stowers is destroying the baseball and faces a low-strikeout arm who’s among the most homer-prone pitchers in the game.
St. Louis Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas has the 14th-worst HR/9 rate and the 11th-worst K/9 among pitchers who have thrown 100 innings this season.
He’s pitched better at his home park, Busch Stadium, where tonight’s game is taking place, but he also has a 6.17 ERA over his last nine starts.
Mikolas has allowed 14 homers over that stretch.
The left-handed hitting Stowers has a robust 1.334 OPS this month. Here’s his July production, with MLB ranks in parentheses:
- .384 average (3rd)
- .471 OBP (2nd)
- .863 SLG (2nd)
- 256 wRC+ (2nd)
- 10 homers (3rd)
Stowers also punishes righties. He’s batting .305 off them with 23 homers.
Against RHPs, only MVP favourites Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have a better slugging percentage than Stowers’ mark of .632.
Key stat: Stowers is 8-2 vs. this line over his last 10 games.
Best MLB picks
Arozarena over 1.5 total bases (+100): I’m going back to a play that didn’t hit for me the other night. But I’m betting on Arozarena for the same reasons.
- He has the platoon advantage and hits left-handed pitching well.
- Tonight’s game is at one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB.
- Arozarena is enjoying his best month of the season.
The Athletics are trotting out southpaw Jeffrey Springs at their home stadium, Sutter Health Park. It’s the No. 2 offensive environment in MLB (next to Coors Field), according to Baseball Savant.
Arozarena has hit lefties for average and power, batting .284 and slugging .532, and will see one of MLB’s worst bullpens following Springs.
The Seattle Mariners outfielder is slugging .622 in July with 10 home runs, by far his best marks of any month.
Soriano under 17.5 outs (-110): The Angels haven’t gotten much length from their starters this series but they can breathe with an off day tomorrow.
Soriano has thrown seven-plus innings an impressive seven times this season and cleared this line in 12 of 22 starts.
But he’s failed to go more than five frames in three of his last four home starts, and has pitched poorly at Angel Stadium this season.
With an elite ground ball rate and fastball velocity, Soriano is capable of dominant outings. Yet he’s extremely inconsistent, walking too many batters with a below-average strikeout rate.
Soriano has a 5.37 ERA at his hitter-friendly home park and has struggled in both outings vs. the Texas Rangers this season.
The righty has allowed eight runs to Texas, failing to top 17.5 outs both times.
MLB prop picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 07/30/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.