In order to avoid a four-game sweep, the Toronto Blue Jays will need to win Wednesday’s matinee against the Baltimore Orioles.
The pregame narrative: It’s an early start (12:35 p.m. ET), but there’s no need to skimp on picks with plenty of offensive potential in this matchup. Adley Rutschman looks to build on some post-injured-list success against a familiar foe, while Nathan Lukes draws a matchup that fits his hitter profile nicely.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Orioles for July 30.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles
Best bet: Rutschman over 1.5 total bases (+132)
Much like the team he plays for, Rutschman’s 2025 season has largely been a flop. But there are signs that the two-time all-star is turning a corner.
Rutschman was barely scraping above the Mendoza Line through May, with a .203 average and a .632 OPS.
But in June, he posted an .890 OPS over 15 games to flash a glimmer of hope for a turnaround. Then he suffered an oblique injury, which put him on the shelf for more than a month.
He returned this series, much to the chagrin of the Blue Jays, and has picked up right where he left off:
- 4-for-9
- 3 doubles
- 3 RBI
- 2-0 vs. his bases prop
Rutschman posted elite walk rates in his first two seasons, but he’s scaled that back while maintaining a sky-high contact rate. Now batting in the cleanup spot for the O’s, pitchers will be forced to work in the zone against him if there are runners on base.
And that’s probably the last thing Jose Berrios wants to do, given their history.
Rutschman is 15-for-28 (.536) with four home runs and two doubles vs. Berrios. The switch-hitting catcher only has two walks and two strikeouts in that hearty sample size.
With his stock on the rise, Rutschman is worth backing in a matchup he’s excelled in many times before.
Key stat: Rutschman is 10-7 vs. this prop since the start of June, averaging 2.1 bases per game in that span.
Quick pick
Orioles over 4.5 runs (-125): The best offence since the all-star break, by wRC+, belongs to the Blue Jays (139).
But the O’s are right behind them (137 wRC+), and you could say they’ve been the more productive outfit.
- 1st in SLG (.518)
- 1st in runs/game (6.2)
- 2nd in ISO (.233)
- 2nd in BA (.285)
Rutschman isn’t the only Baltimore hitter who tends to turn up the heat on Berrios.
As a lineup, the O’s have a .305 BA and a .547 SLG in 190 at-bats against the right-hander. That’s a massive sample for a squad to have against one pitcher.
This will be Berrios’ third start vs. Baltimore in 2025. The O’s cashed this bet in the first two, scored 10 runs off 16 hits in 10.0 innings against him.
Lukes over 0.5 runs (-130): Lukes had a rough doubleheader yesterday, going 0-for-9 with a walk.
But in a game that should feature plenty of offence — the projected total is 10 runs — I think this is a fair price to back Toronto’s leadoff man.
The left-hitting Lukes has the platoon advantage against the right-handed Dean Kremer, which is a nice place to start:
- Lukes vs. RHPs: .783 OPS (compared to a .553 OPS vs. LHPs)
- Kremer vs. LHHs: .758 OPS (compared to .682 OPS vs. RHHs)
Also, Kremer’s pitch arsenal aligns nicely with what Lukes loves to mash.
According to Baseball Savant, Kremer throws a combination of four-seam fastballs, curveballs and splitters roughly 80% of the time to left-hitting players.
Against that pitch mix from righties, Lukes has a .296/.358/.463 slash line (.821 OPS).
Prior to Tuesday’s dud doubleheader, Lukes had scored in five straight games.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:33 a.m. ET on 07/30/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.