Two Canadians are in action at the National Bank Open on Wednesday.
The pregame narrative: Felix Auger-Aliassime will get his tournament going against Fabian Marozsan. Earlier on, Gabriel Diallo plays Matteo Gigante as a sizeable favourite in front of his home crowd. Finally, Taylor Fritz and Roberto Carballes Baena close out the night in Toronto.
Check out my top National Bank Open picks for July 30.
National Bank Open picks
Best bet: Auger-Aliassime -2.5 games (-118)
If we go back to early 2025, the Canadian was one of the best in the world on hardcourt surfaces.
Auger-Aliassime won two titles (Adelaide, Montpellier) and reached another final in Dubai.
Overall, including indoor and outdoor hardcourts, he is 17-7 this season.
Marozsan, meanwhile, comes into this match having lost seven of his last 13. He hasn’t won consecutive games during that time.
The 25-year-old has competed in 17 events in 2025 and has failed to make it to the quarterfinals in 15 of them.
He’s treading water with a 21-18 record this season, and his 8-7 hardcourt record leaves a lot to be desired.
Auger-Aliassime is the better player here, coming in with the momentum on his side.
Key stat: The Canadian has held 83.9% of his service points (223/266) on outdoor hardcourts this season.
National Bank Open best bet: Fritz vs Carballes Baena
Fritz to win under 12.5 games (-143): I know this pick is an under, but it’s actually my way of backing Fritz to win in straight sets while avoiding his -315 pricetag.
He has a juicy matchup against a player punching way above his weight class.
- Carballes Baena is below .500 in his career on outdoor hardcourts (45-68).
- Fritz is 15-6 on the surface this season and 251-127 in his career.
If this were contested on clay, there may be an argument for the Spaniard who’s 505-308 on the red dirt in his 14 years as a pro.
But this court type is doing Carballes Baena no favours, and Fritz should be able to take this match comfortably in two sets.
Best bet: Diallo vs. Gigante
Diallo -1.5 sets (-118): Diallo has been active in 2025, putting together a 29-20 record while competing in a lot of the top competitions.
He won his first ATP 250 event and now gets a shot to play in front of his home crowd in the middle of his breakout season.
And the Canadian should have the advantage in the round of 64.
- Diallo and Gigante most recently played on this surface in January 2024, with Diallo winning in straight sets.
- Since then, the Italian has remained on the Challenger Tour while Diallo has become a staple on the ATP Tour.
- Gigante has needed all three sets for each of his past six wins, while his past three losses have come in straight sets.
And that poor form hasn’t been at the highest level. All but one of those matches were played on the Challenger Tour.
Diallo has won 10 of his past 14 matches. All four losses were against players ranked inside the top 35.
National Bank Open picks made at 4:36 p.m. on 07/29/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.