Josh Naylor headlines Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: The Canadian hit his first home run as a Seattle Mariner last night and has great value to go deep again in the homer-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park. Elsewhere, I’m targeting Teoscar Hernandez in a plus matchup.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 29.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Naylor to hit a home run (+450)
Seattle needed a lefty bat that could mash, and Naylor fit the bill.
The Canadian has flirted with the 30 home run milestone in each of the last four seasons, hitting a career high 31 bombs in 2023.
Naylor slashed .292/.360/.447 in 93 games with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and is off to a hot start with the Mariners, going 5-for-15 (.333) with a home run.
Tonight, the Mariners take on Luis Severino and the Athletics.
- Severino has a 6.68 ERA and 1.1 HR/9 at home.
- The righty also has a 13th percentile K rate and 11th percentile hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.
- Sutter Health Park, the Athletics’ temporary home venue, is the eighth-most homer-friendly park in MLB this year.
Key stat: Naylor does serious damage against righty arms, slugging .481 with nine of his 12 home runs.
Best HR predictions
Hernandez to hit a home run (+295): This is the perfect storm for Hernandez to launch one.
The ball flies at Great American Ball Park for right-hitting batters, with 21% more home runs than the league average of the last three seasons.
Hernandez has been on a tear over his last five games, going 7-for-19 (.360 batting average) with two home runs.
Now, he gets to go up against Nick Lodolo, who has a stellar 3.08 ERA, but is homer-prone. The lefty has given up nine home runs in his last nine starts.
Hernandez is slugging .672 against LHP this year with six home runs in 67 at-bats.
MLB home run picks made at 11:28 a.m. ET on 07/29/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.