The San Diego Padres are looking for a fourth straight win when they host the New York Mets for the second of a three-game series.
The pregame narrative: San Diego squeaked out a 7-6 win in last night’s contest and sends Ryan Bergert to the mound. The Mets counter with Sean Manaea, who’s making his third start of the year with an impressive 2.19 ERA.
Check out my Mets vs. Giants predictions, featuring Xander Bogaerts and Brett Baty.
Mets vs. Padres predictions
Parlay: Padres +1.5 | Bogaerts over 0.5 hits | Baty over 0.5 hits (+325)
Padres +1.5 (-167): The Padres may have the less experienced pitcher starting today, but I still believe they hold the advantage.
Bergert has been solid as a rookie, sporting a 2.84 ERA through 10 appearances (six starts).
More importantly, he gets run support from his offence. In those six starts, San Diego is 5-1 straight up and 6-0 against this run line.
On the other side, Manaea has been solid over 12.1 innings to start his season, but this is a tough matchup for the veteran lefty.
In 120 at-bats, the Padres’ offence has a .316 average with a 19.5% K-rate against him. That’s enough of a sample size for me to expect a letdown spot in Manaea’s third start of the season.
MLB SGP legs
Bogaerts over 0.5 (-215): Bogaerts is one of the sluggers who often gets on Manaea.
He has seven hits in 15 at-bats vs. the lefty with two doubles and a home run (.800 SLG).
That’s unsurprising considering he mashes left-handed pitching:
- Vs. RHP in 2025: .251 average
- Vs. LHP in 2025: .311 average
Additionally, the infielder has 12 hits in his last 40 plate appearances, batting .317 over the last nine games.
Bogaerts is red-hot right now and should do damage against the Mets on Tuesday.
Baty over 0.5 hits (-127): The third baseman is hitless in his last two games, but that doesn’t discourage me much.
If you include those contests, he still has at least a knock in eight of his past 10 games. He’s hitting .273 during that time.
As solid as Bergert has been, his 4.62 xERA is much worse than his actual ERA (2.84).
He has below-average K rate (23.1%), meaning there should be lots of contact from the Mets’ hitters.
And that includes Baty, who’s swinging a hot bat right now.
Mets vs. Padres predictions made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 07/29/2025.
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Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.