On a Sunday loaded with early afternoon games, I’ve got three MLB prop bets from games starting before 2:30 p.m. ET.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Cody Bellinger has swung a powerful bat against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler in the past, and he’s got compelling value on his bases prop today amid a hot streak. Later on, Brandon Woodruff looks to close out July with one more dominant outing.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 27, also featuring Luis Arraez.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Woodruff over 6.5 strikeouts (+130)
Woodruff’s midseason return for the Brewers has been electric, bolstering the team’s division title hopes.
After a year and a half on the shelf due to shoulder/elbow issues, Woodruff made his 2025 season debut on July 6, dominating the Marlins in 6.0 innings of work (two hits, one run, eight Ks).
His two subsequent starts have been similarly stellar:
- July 12: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 10 Ks
- July 21: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 5 Ks
Now Woodruff will run it back against the Marlins, who admittedly aren’t a big strikeout team. They have the ninth-lowest K% in the majors (20.9%).
Woodruff doesn’t have much experience against this group, but he’s been utterly dominant in a small sample: 36 plate appearances, two hits (.059 BA), 12 strikeouts (33.3 K%).
Miami can deploy up to five left-hitting batters against the right-handed Woodruff today, but I say the more the merrier.
Woodruff’s best put-away pitch is his changeup to lefties, which has garnered a 53.8% whiff rate and a .400 opponent OPS dating back to the 2022 season (according to Baseball Savant).
Key stat: This year, the Marlins have the fifth-highest whiff rate vs. changeups from righties (32.6%).
Best MLB picks
Bellinger over 1.5 total bases (+143): Wheeler is on the mound for the Phillies today, which means it’ll be an uphill battle for the Yankees’ offence.
But Bellinger is a guy who can break through, as he has against Wheeler in the past.
- Bellinger is 6-for-15 (.400) against Wheeler, and all six hits went for extra bases (five HRs, one double).
- Last year, while playing for the Cubs, Bellinger cashed this bet with a double in his lone game against Wheeler.
Also, Bellinger is blazing hot right now, slugging .700 in his past 21 games. He’s 13-8 vs. this prop in that span.
Arraez over 1.5 hits (+165): Arraez is one of the very few players I look at in the 1.5 hits market.
Why? Because he’s a three-time batting champ who rarely walks or strikes out. So there are always ample opportunities for hits to drop in.
Fuelled by MLB’s lowest strikeout rate, Arraez only walks or strikes out in 7.4% of his plate appearances.
He’s not on a batting-title-tear this season, but the high-contact infielder has enjoyed a solid little run lately. Over his past nine games, he’s batting .361 with four multi-hit performances.
Arraez will face St. Louis rookie Michael McGreevy, who has allowed 14 hits while striking out just two batters over his past two starts.
Left-hitting players — for which Arraez is one — have a .363 xBA against McGreevy this year.
MLB prop picks made at 11:29 a.m. ET on 07/27/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.