Two top-15 players have a shot to meet in the final at the Citi Open.
The latest: Alex De Minaur is still in search of his first title for 2025 and has a meeting with Corentin Moutet in the semifinal. Ben Shelton has been dominant at this event and looks to notch his spot in the final in a match against a game Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Check out my top Citi Open men’s predictions for July 26, featuring a pick on both matches.
Citi predictions: Men’s semis
Best bet: De Minaur/Moutet under 20.5 games (-106)
This is my way of backing De Minaur to win convincingly with some playable value. He is -156 to win in straight sets, which is a fine pick if you can bear those odds, but it’s a bit too steep for me.
- The Australian is a very experienced player on this surface. He has a 186-91 record on outdoor hardcourts in his career.
- That’s much better than Moutet’s 63-51 record.
The Frenchman is more of a clay specialist, and that 55.3% win rate on outdoor hardcourts is his second worst on any surface.
Two out of three wins for De Minaur have been in straight sets, and both stayed under this total.
He fought off a very tough Jiri Lehecka (No. 25) in the outlier but takes a step back in competition against Moutet (No. 56) in the semis.
De Minaur has a 34-11 record on outdoor hardcourts since the start of 2024. In comparison, Moutet has a 14-11 record.
Key stat: In their one career matchup, De Minaur won in straight sets (6-1, 6-3) on an indoor hardcourt.
Full Citi Open betting markets
Shelton vs. Davidovich Fokina best bet
Over 22.5 games (-118): This matchup should be close for a few reasons.
- Both players come into the semis in top form. Shelton hasn’t lost a set, while Davidovich Fokina has won eight of nine sets.
- The Spaniard most recently beat Taylor Fritz, the No. 4-ranked player who won 15 of 17 games before that match
- Shelton eliminated two top-40 players (Gabriel Diallo, Frances Tiafoe), while only needing one tiebreaker to win every set.
The nice part about the modest over for this match is that it can be hit in two close sets.
And since Davidovich Fokina just proved he’s able to beat elite talent, I have to believe he can be competitive once again against the No. 8 player.
Citi Open predictions made at 1:34 p.m. on 07/26/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.