The Toronto Blue Jays look for a statement series win over the Detroit Tigers on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto (62-42) officially owns the best record in MLB after winning seven of its first eight games coming out of the all-star break. But the Jays are underdogs today with AL Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal on the mound for the Tigers.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Tigers for July 26, featuring a fade on Myles Straw.
Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers
Best bet: Skubal under 6.5 Ks (+105)
The last time Skubal toed rubber, he struck out 11 Texas Rangers on Sunday Night Baseball.
That marked the third time in his last five starts that he’s racked up double-digit Ks, and has him sitting second on MLB’s strikeout leaderboard (164 Ks) to Boston’s Garrett Crochet.
So why fade a man with that kind of acumen?
Because Toronto is on a rampage, that’s why. The Blue Jays have won 20 of their last 25 games and have made minced meat of the Tigers in the first two meetings of this series.
- Toronto has an MLB-low 15.8% K rate over its last 25 games.
- In the eight games since the all-star break, the Jays’ 12.3% K rate is first, and roughly half of the MLB average.
- Detroit’s starters have only managed a combined seven strikeouts in 9.2 IP this series.
Simply put, this is a matchup of good versus great. I don’t want to undersell how spectacular Skubal has been this year, because he ranks second in ERA (2.19), first in WHIP (0.81), and has a 96th percentile K rate (34.0%).
But Toronto hasn’t been fooled by many elite arms this year. Just last week, Robbie Ray — a lefty with a 2.91 ERA and 77th percentile K rate — logged three strikeouts in 4.1 IP.
Key stat: Toronto has faced 25 lefties this year, and 24 of them have gone under this line (17 of which had four or fewer Ks).
Quick pick
Straw under 0.5 hits (-113): Straw bounces in and out of Toronto’s starting lineup and is slated to hit eighth today because of his strong numbers against lefties and Skubal.
The platoon man is slashing .275/.320/.352 vs. LHP this year, but that doesn’t phase me one bit.
Skubal isn’t your regular southpaw, and Straw is ice cold heading into this matchup. He’s hitless in 10 of his last 16 appearances with a .162 batting average in July.
To be fair, some of those games were solely pinch-hit at-bats, but that demonstrates the kind of player Straw is. The outfielder will likely be pulled from the game once Skubal is done. He only has eight complete games in his last 20 starts.
Skubal’s .191 OBA vs. righty bats is as elite as it comes, and I’m not too worried about Straw going 3-for-9 with three singles against the lefty.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:36 a.m. ET on 07/26/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.