Now sitting alone in the No. 1 spot in the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays continue their four-game set against the Detroit Tigers on Friday evening.
The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence exploded in an 11-4 win on Thursday night, featuring a double and run from George Springer. I’m targeting Springer tonight as he looks to finish strong in what has been a superb month of production.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Tigers for July 25, featuring Zach McKinstry.
Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers
Best bet: Springer over 0.5 runs (-117)
The party hasn’t stopped for Springer, who’s been a wrecking ball throughout July.
In 19 games this month, Springer has a .352/.439/.648 slash line and 19 runs scored. He also has more walks (11) than strikeouts (10).
Strikeouts were an issue for Springer earlier this season, but he has really scaled that back:
- March/April/May: 23.6 K%
- June/July: 12.8 K%
Last year, Springer posted a 91 OPS+ — the first below-average mark of his career. There was some justifiable concern that the mid-30s outfielder would limp through the final two years of his deal without providing a ton of value.
Well, forget about that.
Springer is clearly seeing the ball exceptionally well right now, and his .377 OBP is his highest since 2019 (when he finished a career-best seventh in MVP voting).
As a bonus, Detroit right-hander Keider Montero primarily throws sinkers to right-handed batters, and that’s what Springer excels against most.
Springer is 24-for-55 (.436) with a .636 SLG against sinkers from RHPs.
Key stat: Springer has cashed this bet in 12 of 17 starts this month, including each of his past five.
Quick pick
McKinstry under 0.5 hits (+135): McKinstry will have the platoon advantage against Berrios tonight, but he’s in enough of a slump right now that I think there’s some value in this prop market.
The all-star infielder is hitless in eight of his past 16 starts. He’s 9-for-51 (.176) in that span.
McKinstry has done well this season to put the barrel on the ball — posting a 100th-percentile launch angle sweet spot rate — but he rarely makes hard contact and relies more on placement than power.
Look at how he ranks in some key batted ball metrics at Baseball Savant:
- 6th-percentile average exit velocity
- 15th-percentile hard-hit rate
- 27th-percentile xSLG
McKinstry is hitless in five of his past seven games, and I like this price to bet on another quiet outing at the plate.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:36 a.m. ET on 07/25/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.