Junior Caminero and Bryce Harper are Wednesday’s featured MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Caminero is having a breakout season with the Tampa Bay Rays and has a favourable matchup at home tonight. Elsewhere, look for Harper to keep rolling after a great start to the second half.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 23.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Caminero to hit a home run (+295)
Caminero is probably hoping the Rays stay at George M. Steinbrenner Field for as long as possible.
- Caminero has a .324/.360/.615 slash line at George M. Steinbrenner Field over 56 games.
- 16 of his 25 home runs have been hit at Tampa’s temporary home venue.
- According to Baseball Savant’s park factors, George M. Steinbrenner Field is the second-most HR-friendly venue for right-hitting batters (39% more HRs than average).
Today, Caminero and the Rays host Jonathan Cannon (4.18 ERA) and the Chicago White Sox.
Cannon has given up six home runs in his last six starts and ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, K rate, and hard-hit rate.
Caminero hasn’t hit a home run since the all-star break, but he’s 8-for-20 during the Rays’ current homestand.
He’s seeing the ball well and should get a few solid looks against a low-quality arm.
Key stat: Caminero runs reverse splits, meaning his slugging percentage against righties (.533) is higher than his slugging percentage against lefties (.456).
Best HR predictions
Harper to hit a home run (+195): Harper, much like Caminero, is on a tear coming out of the all-star break.
In five games, the two-time MVP is 8-for-19 with four doubles and three home runs. That nets out to an absurd .421/.476/1.105 slash line.
Lucas Giolito toes the rubber for the Boston Red Sox at Citizens Bank Park tonight, and the righty profiles as a solid matchup.
Giolito doesn’t walk many batters (7.2% BB rate, 70th percentile) and gives up lots of hard contact (44.0% hard-hit rate, 24th percentile) with a low strikeout rate (21.9% K rate, 45th percentile).
Harper should have plenty of pitches to hit tonight, and he’s already 1-for-3 with a home run off Giolito.
MLB home run picks made at 4:49 p.m. ET on 07/23/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.