The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees meet for a rubber match at Rogers Centre on Wednesday.
The pregame narrative: New York snapped its five-game losing streak against Toronto yesterday with a ninth-inning home run courtesy of Ben Rice. The Yankees are slightly favoured today behind Max Fried, who is pitching opposite Chris Bassitt.
Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions, featuring George Springer and Aaron Judge.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions
Parlay: Over 6.5 runs | Springer over 1.5 total bases | Judge under 1.5 hits (+320)
Over 6.5 runs (-250): I’m expecting fireworks in this series-deciding game. Check out how the team’s offences have performed over the last 30 days.
- TOR: 1st in runs per game (5.67), 1st in batting average (.275), 2nd in wRC+ (119)
- NYY: 2nd in runs per game (5.46), 11th in batting average (.251), 3rd in wRC+ (116)
Fried has had a solid season for the Yankees, posting a 2.43 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP. But his xERA (3.43) is notably higher, and he’s gotten touched up over his last three starts for 10 earned runs in 14.0 IP.
That includes an outing against the Jays on Canada Day, which Toronto won, 12-5.
And I can’t trust Bassitt against the Yankees.
New York has a collective .304 batting average and .513 slugging percentage against the righty over 115 combined at-bats.
This year, Bassitt has allowed 14 hits and seven earned runs to the Yankees in 11.1 IP.
MLB SGP legs
Springer over 1.5 total bases (+138): Springer has become the alpha dog on Toronto’s offence during this hot streak, batting a blistering .349 with a 1.097 OPS since July 1.
He’s cleared this line in four of his last five games against the Yankees, going a combined 10-for-18 with four home runs.
Springer took Fried deep when they last met on Canada Day and is 3-for-9 lifetime against the lefty with a .303 xBA.
Judge under 1.5 hits (-335): Judge is leading MLB in batting average (.346), but does that really matter if Toronto won’t pitch to him?
The Jays have intentionally walked Judge seven times this year, more than any other team in baseball. And maybe that’s getting to him, because he’s 0-for-6 in this series otherwise.
Judge has gone under 1.5 hits in six straight games and in nine of his last 10.
He’s been walked 10 times in his last six games against Toronto, so I would be shocked if he gets more than three at-bats this evening.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 07/23/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.