Two of Monday’s three MLB home run picks come from the same game, when the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Houston Astros.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Eugenio Suarez is having a monster season at the plate, and has a platoon advantage against Houston’s Colton Gordon. The same can be said for veteran Jose Altuve, who carries juicy +650 odds to go deep.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 21, featuring a pick on Wilson Contreras.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+250)
This is likely the last week we’ll see Suarez in a D-Backs uniform, as the third baseman has garnered tons of attention on an expiring contract.
The 34-year-old ranks third in home runs (35) and first in RBI (85) and has been doing damage against right-handed pitching:
- Suarez owns a .598 SLG vs. LHP.
- He’s hit 10 home runs in 83 at-bats (8.3% HR rate).
- His .398 ISO vs. LHP is the fourth-best in MLB.
I think Suarez has a couple more home runs in him before the trade deadline, and I’m all over his matchup tonight.
Gordon is a contact pitcher through and through. His 98th percentile walk rate (3.4%) and 30th percentile K rate (19.4%) mean Suarez will almost certainly get something to hit.
And that’s great news with the way the righty has been pitching.
Gordon has given up six home runs in his last five starts and has a 7.15 ERA in July.
Key stat: Right-hitting batters are slugging .547 against Gordon this year.
Best HR predictions
Altuve to hit a home run (+650): These odds seem very generous with the way Altuve is playing.
The veteran is batting .373/.435/.712 with four home runs in 15 games this month, and now, he has a matchup against the HR-prone Zac Gallen.
- Gallen’s 1.6 HR/9 rate is the seventh-highest among all qualified pitchers.
- The righty ranks in the 20th percentile or lower in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Like Suarez, Altuve is running reverse splits this season. That means he’s doing much better in righty-vs-righty matchups (.289 batting average, .825 OPS).
Altuve has also taken Gallen deep before.
Contreras to hit a home run (+250): I want to capitalize on the thin air at Coors Field, and Contreras fits the bill.
The St. Louis Cardinals first baseman isn’t a big power bat, but is slugging a respectable .505 vs. LHP this season.
Tonight, he goes up against Austin Gomber, who is getting shelled this season.
The southpaw has a 5.65 ERA and has given up a home run in four of his last five starts.
Contreras is 2-for-5 against Gomber with a pair of home runs.
MLB home run picks made at 1:34 p.m. ET on 07/21/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.