The Toronto Blue Jays start an important series with the New York Yankees on Monday.
The pregame narrative: The games will be played at Rogers Centre, where Toronto has put up an impressive 10-game win streak dating back to its four-game sweep of the Yankees in early July. Can New York make some of the ground back in the AL East?
Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions, featuring Aaron Judge and Carlos Rodon.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions
Parlay: Over 7.5 runs | Judge over 1.5 bases | Rodon under 5.5 Ks (+300)
Over 7.5 runs (-156): With two scorching hot offences going at it, I’ll happily opt for the over on a teased-down game total.
The Yankees are averaging 6.4 runs in their last 10 games. The Blue Jays haven’t been quite as good, but still averaged a respectable 4.9 runs in the same span.
Toronto is also coming off a sweep over the San Francisco Giants, in which the Jays scored 6.0 runs per game.
I can easily get behind a low total when I feel like both teams are playing well enough to go over alone, which is certainly the case here.
That brings me to Kevin Gausman. The Blue Jays starter struggled against the Yankees this season, allowing eight runs over two starts (7.2 innings pitched). Both teams combined to score 30 runs in those two games.
Rodon was better in his start vs. Toronto, giving up two runs in 5.0 IP, but the game still went over this total, finishing 5-4.
MLB SGP legs
Judge over 1.5 bases (-127): Judge is one of the sluggers who feast when Gausman is on the mound.
The AL MVP favourite has 16 hits in 43 at-bats (.372 average) vs. the righty with six home runs.
And a lot of that work was against a prime Gausman, which we’re not seeing this season.
The former Cy Young candidate is sporting a 4.19 ERA in 2025, his worst since joining the Blue Jays.
This season, Judge has cashed this wager in both of Gausman’s starts against the Yankees.
Judge also has hits in all three games since the break with a home run against the Atlanta Braves on Sunday afternoon.
Rodon under 5.5 Ks (-157): As mentioned, Rodon was efficient in his one start against Toronto this year, but he only struck out four batters over five innings.
Rodon does have an impressive 28.2% K rate, but the Blue Jays provide the toughest matchup in the majors.
Toronto strikes out fewer times per game (6.68) than any other team in MLB. Five straight starting pitchers have gone under this mark against the Jays.
Plus, Rodon’s recorded five or fewer Ks in five of his past seven starts.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions made at 11:50 a.m. ET on 07/21/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.