Two superstars headline Saturday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Mike Trout has won plenty of MVPs, and Elly De La Cruz has the tools to join him one day. Trout gets a matchup against a pitcher he’s dominated before, while De La Cruz has several factors working in his favour against the New York Mets.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 19.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: De La Cruz to hit a home run (+550)
Today’s game at Citi Field between the Cincinnati Reds and Mets is projected to have strong 11 mph winds blowing out to centre.
That should help De La Cruz capitalize on his platoon advantage against Clay Holmes.
- De La Cruz is slashing .307/.392/.546 against RHP, hitting 13 of his 18 home runs against them.
- Holmes has given up eight of his 11 home runs at home.
- The righty’s 13.1% HR-to-fly-ball rate is the 16th highest in MLB. He also ranks in the 40th percentile or lower in hard-hit rate, K rate, and average exit velocity.
De La Cruz hasn’t hit a home run this month, but he’s been seeing the ball well.
The superstar is posting a .313/.389/.417 slash line over 13 games in July, and in June, he hit seven bombs while slashing .344/.427/.656.
The levee is going to break sooner or later for De La Cruz, so why not today?
Key stat: De La Cruz’s OPS vs. RHP (.938) is over 250 points higher than his OPS vs. LHP (.670).
Best HR predictions
Trout to hit a home run (+295): Trout is having a pretty poor season by his standards, but the tides have begun to turn.
The three-time MVP is slashing .286/.446/.592 this month, hitting four home runs in his last nine games.
Speaking of three, that’s how many times he’s taken Philadelphia Phillies starter Taijuan Walker deep. All in all, Trout is 11-for-19 against the righty with a 1.158 OPS.
That’s a good place to start for this wager.
Trout’s expected stats also suggest he’s been severely underindexing. He ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and launch angle sweet spot.
Walker, meanwhile, has struggled to miss bats this year and will be on a short leash after being moved from the bullpen to the rotation.
Philadelphia’s bullpen has the eighth-highest ERA in baseball.
MLB home run picks made at 11:21 a.m. ET on 07/19/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.