We’re halfway through the Open Championship at Royal Portrush, and a handful of serious contenders have emerged.
The latest: Scottie Scheffler leads the pack after firing a 7-under 64 on Friday, and is the odds-on favourite to win. Matt Fitzpatrick is only one shot behind, though, and has won in a pressure-packed situation before.
Check out my Open Championship best bets for the weekend’s action on July 19 and 20.
Open Championship best bets
Best bet: Fitzpatrick to win (+540)
I picked Fitzpatrick to win this event at +4,500 on Monday, and that price is long gone.
Do I wish the World No. 1 wasn’t leading him by a shot? Sure, but this provides another opportunity to get in on the Englishman at a solid number.
Fitzpatrick ranks first in strokes gained: tee-to-green (+10.26) through 36 holes, according to DataGolf, and that’s a very sustainable path to winning.
He’s missed a bunch of short putts, which hurts, but should be an easy fix.
Scheffler, meanwhile, is striking the ball pure as always. But he’s had a ridiculous week with the flatstick so far, making 212.1 feet of putts (eighth-most in the field) and gaining 5.61 strokes on the green (second-most).
I expect Scheffler to regress, given his history at the Open. Heading into this event, Scheffler lost an average of 0.8 strokes per round putting.
And let’s not forget Fitzpatrick has won a major championship before, staving off Scheffler and Will Zalatoris at the U.S. Open in 2022.
This is a proper test, and Fitzpatrick is a proper player. I’ll stick with my pre-tournament pick.
Key stat: Fitzpatrick’s 16 birdie chances under 20 feet are the second-most in the tournament.
Full Open Championship betting markets
Long shot prediction
Sam Burns to win (+15,000): I think either Scheffler or Fitzpatrick will win this event, but let’s look at a long shot in case Mother Nature has something to say.
That duo is slated to go off together around 10:00 a.m. ET (3:00 p.m. local), and wind gusts are expected to reach a peak of 29 km/h shortly thereafter with rain.
I’m looking for someone who can score in droves and post a number before a potential storm rolls in — Burns fits that bill.
The American was leading the U.S. Open down the stretch last month before some bad luck knocked him to T7.
He ranks seventh in this field in strokes gained over the last three months and is 14th in birdie average (4.22) on the PGA Tour this year.
Burns birdied four holes on the back nine on Friday to finish at 3-under, and I’m hoping he carries that momentum into the weekend.
Open Championship best bets made at 4:00 p.m. on 07/18/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.