The second half of the MLB season begins on Friday with all 30 teams in action.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The Detroit Tigers lead baseball with 59 wins coming out of the all-star break, and their offence has an A+ matchup against lefty Patrick Corbin. Elsewhere, the Baltimore Orioles should have a pitching advantage against their divisional rival Tampa Bay Rays.
Check out my top MLB best bets for July 18.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Tigers over 4.5 runs (-110)
Tarik Skubal and elite pitching might be the first things you associate with the Tigers.
But Detroit’s offence has been amazing all season, and that’s the main reason why the team is playing at a 97-win pace.
- Detroit is averaging 4.97 runs per game, the sixth-most in MLB. It is also averaging 5.15 runs per game on the road (fourth-most).
- The Tigers rank top 10 in batting average (.252), OPS (.749), and wRC+ (110).
- They do most of their damage against left-handed pitching: Third in batting average (.264) and wRC+ (116), fourth in OPS (.779).
Corbin has been one of MLB’s premier punching bags over the past four years, owning an ERA above 5.20 from 2021-2024.
The southpaw has held up surprisingly well for the Texas Rangers this season (4.15 ERA), but I have to believe the crash-and-burn is coming soon — and ideally, starting on Friday.
Corbin has a .336 xBA in his last five starts while surrendering a 44% hard-hit rate. Detroit should be all over his subpar offerings at Globe Life Field.
Key stat: Texas’ opponents have scored 4+ runs in each of Corbin’s last five starts, going over 4.5 runs three times.
Quick picks
Orioles F5 +0.5 (-130): Backing a team nine games under .500 with a -90 run differential might seem silly, but give me a chance to explain.
Charlie Morton is on the mound for Baltimore, and he’s gotten better and better as the season has progressed:
- April: 9.26 ERA
- May: 3.98 ERA
- June: 2.88 ERA
- July: 2.38 ERA
The veteran righty has been straight up dealing since the start of June (2.72 ERA, 2.48 FIP, .223 xBA), with Baltimore going 4-3 against this line in those appearances.
Morton faced the Rays during this stretch and held them to one earned run on six hits in 6.0 innings.
Tampa Bay counters with Taj Bradley, who’s been hit hard by Baltimore over two starts this year (12 runs in 6.2 IP).
MLB best bets made at 1:48 p.m. ET on 07/17/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.