The Open Championship begins on Thursday at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland.
The latest: Jon Rahm, alongside Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, are the only three golfers with odds below 20-to-1 this week. I like the Spaniard’s chances of winning the final major of the golf season and have a few other picks as well.
Check out my Open Championship predictions for the 2025 tournament beginning on July 17, featuring bets on Viktor Hovland and Sepp Straka.
Open Championship predictions
Best bet: Rahm to win (+1,100)
Rahm is a perennial threat at the Open Championship, and I say it’s high time he wins one of these.
The Spaniard has gained an average of 2.45 strokes per round in his last five Opens, which is the third-best of any golfer in the field with more than two starts. Check out his finishes in those events:
- 2025: T7
- 2024: T2
- 2022: T34
- 2021: T3
- 2019: T11
Rahm’s run of solid form began at Royal Portrush in 2019, and he’s become a much more complete player since then.
Read: Open Championship key facts & narratives
I won’t put much stock into his LIV results, but Rahm only finished outside of the top 10 once this year. And he’s logged a top 15 at every major so far, which is nice to see after a disappointing run last season.
As an all-world off-the-tee player with a great iron game and soft hands around the green, Rahm can contend at any venue.
Hitting greens will be paramount, though, and that’s where I think he can separate himself in inclement weather this week.
Key stat: Rahm has the second-best greens in regulation percentage (75.1%) over the last 36 rounds, according to RickRunGood.com.
Full Open Championship betting markets
Golf picks & top finishes props
Hovland to win (+3,000) & top-20 finish (+138): I’m going to put a sprinkle on the following three players to win, and am bullish they’ll finish inside the top 20.
Let’s start with Hovland, who’s heating up ahead of the last major of the season.
A third-place finish at the U.S. Open grabbed everyone’s attention. Since then, Hovland withdrew at the Travelers after three good rounds and finished T11 at the Scottish Open last week.
The Norwegian is gaining the second-most strokes on approach over the last 36 rounds and has five top-10 finishes in his last 12 major starts.
Fitzpatrick to win (+4,500) & top-20 finish (+188): I backed Fitzpatrick to win last week at the Scottish Open, and he came pretty close with a T4.
So why not go back to him amid this hot streak? Fitzpatrick is hitting his irons really well and is gaining strokes consistently off the tee.
European Ryder Cup vice-captain Edoardo Molinari also highlights Fitzpatrick as a player who putts exceptionally well on slow greens.
Portrush is expected to be running around 10-to-11 on the Stimpmeter, which is well below the tour average.
Straka to win (+5,000) & top-20 finish (+200): Straka’s PGA Tour record has been spectacular this season, but that hasn’t translated to major success.
Still, I can’t help but go back to the Austrian, who has been consistent on a week-to-week basis.
- 2025 non-majors: 16 starts, 13 top-20 finishes, two wins
- 2025 Majors: Three starts, three missed cuts
Straka is an extremely accurate driver and an elite iron player. That should separate him at the Open Championship, where he finished T22 last year and T2 the year before that.
Long shot Open Championship prediction
Ben Griffin to win (+10,000) & top-40 finish (+125): I’ll take a flier on Griffin at 100-to-1 based on his recent play.
After all, he has six top-15 finishes and a win in his last seven starts. In that span, Griffin ranks fourth in average strokes gained per round — ahead of names like Rory McIlroy, Hovland and Straka.
Griffen missed the cut in each of his prior Open Championship starts, but he’s a different player this year. And he’s finished top 10 at both major championship starts in 2025, so I can’t picture the stress getting to him.
Open Championship predictions made at 4:00 p.m. on 07/14/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.