Atlanta’s MLB All-Star Game festivities begin on Monday night with the 2025 Home Run Derby.
The pregame narrative: Matt Olson was a last-minute replacement for his teammate Ronald Acuna Jr., and the veteran slugger holds enticing odds in front of his home fans. Pittsburgh’s Oneil Cruz is favoured to win, and his freakish power should be on full display.
Check out my MLB Home Run Derby picks, featuring a prediction on Byron Buxton, for the all-star event on July 14.
Home Run Derby picks
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| Picks | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Olson to reach the semifinals | -106 | Add to betslip |
| Olson to win the HR Derby | +700 | Add to betlsip |
| Cruz to hit the longest home run | +165 | Add to betslip |
| Buxton to reach the semifinals | +100 | Add to betslip |
Full HR Derby betting markets.
Best bet: Olson to reach the semifinals (-106), win the HR Derby (+700)
Everybody in this field can mash, and Olson is no exception.
The 31-year-old has hit 17 bombs this year and ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Olson is on a cold spell lately, with just three home runs in his last 24 games.
But he doesn’t need to be in form to win — Teoscar Hernandez had two home runs in 27 games before winning last year — and Olson has the advantage of competing in his home ballpark on Monday.
- Truist Park is the seventh-most HR-friendly ballpark for lefty bats, according to Baseball Savant’s park factors.
- Olson has 62 homers at home since joining the Braves in 2022, and led MLB with 54 bombs in 2023.
Reaching the semifinals requires Olson to come inside the top half for total HRs in the opening round. I’m very bullish on that play.
After that, Olson would be seeded into a head-to-head elimination bracket, with the most HRs advancing in each round.
Key stat: Olson is the only player in the field to participate in a HR derby before, hitting 23 home runs in the opening round in 2021.
HR Derby best bets
Cruz to hit the longest home run (+165): I’m skeptical that Cruz will win this event, but I believe the favourite will provide fireworks at some point.
The Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder stands at 6-foot-7 and weighs 240 pounds. Anytime he connects with a baseball, it gets hit hard.
- Cruz has the highest average exit velocity (96.3 mph) in all of MLB.
- All but one of Cruz’s 18 home runs this year have been hit above 100 mph. His 122.9 max exit velocity was the hardest hit ball in the Statcast era.
- His 57.7% hard-hit rate is third behind Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber.
Cruz is a towering pull hitter and will surely be swinging out of his shoes at every pitch tonight.
Backing the biggest and strongest player to hit the furthest ball seems like a good plan to me.
Buxton to reach the semifinals (+100): The greatest ability is availability, and Buxton’s health concerns are what’s kept him from being a truly elite player.
But the Minnesota Twin is electric whenever he’s on the field.
Buxton has posted an OPS+ of 115 or better in six of the last seven seasons, playing no more than 102 games in any of those campaigns. This year, he has 21 home runs in 78 games, and is slugging .574.
The righty is a pull hitter and won’t reap the benefit of Truist Park’s dimensions. But I think he can capitalize on raw power and athleticism to at least make it to the second round.
MLB Home Run Derby picks made at 9 a.m. on 07/14/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.