Two big-time sluggers headline Sunday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been crushing lefties this season and gets a Grade-A matchup to take advantage of. Elsewhere, Teoscar Hernandez faces a red-hot Robbie Ray, but there’s value on the side of the designated hitter.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 13.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Hernandez to hit a home run (+575)
I love the value on Hernandez in this matchup, and that’s basically due to Ray being a lefty.
The San Francisco Giants starter is having a great season (9-3, 2.68 ERA), but no southpaw is safe against Hernandez.
- vs. RHP: .231 average (.404 SLG)
- vs. LHP: .356 average (.695 SLG)
His 8.1% home-run rate against lefties also towers over his rate against righties (3.7%).
Hernandez is in a bit of a dry spell with no home runs in his last 13 games, but Sunday provides a great opportunity for him to go deep.
Additionally, wind will be blowing out to left centre field between 7-10 mph for the duration of the game, per Swish Analytics.
Key stat: Hernandez is 3-for-7 in his career against Ray with three home runs.
Best HR predictions
Guererro to hit a home run (+290): Guerrero doesn’t rely on a platoon advantage, but he still enjoys one.
- His .325 batting average and .513 SLG against lefties are both at least 50 points higher than against righties.
- He only has 13 Ks against left-handed pitching this season in 94 at-bats, meaning he should put the ball in play.
Jeffery Springs is the southpaw taking the mound for the Athletics. His 3.95 ERA is fine, but his xERA of 4.17 ranks below average for a starter.
He also throws a slow four-seam fastball over 40% of the time (90.5 mph average, seventh percentile) —Guerrero is batting .333 and slugging .595 against four-seamers in 2025.
Today’s contest will also be played at the A’s makeshift home of Sutter Health Park.
It ranks just behind Coors Field as the second most batter-friendly ballpark in the majors based on scoring (23% more runs than average). A gentle wind of 5.8 mph will be heading out to centre field at first pitch.
MLB home run picks made at 10:35 a.m. ET on 07/13/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.