Two starting pitchers in the late window highlight the best MLB prop picks for Friday’s slate.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Dustin May is coming off his best performance of the season and I like him to keep the strikeouts coming despite the jump up in competition. On the other hand, I don’t expect Ryne Nelson to continue his run of deep outings against the Los Angeles Angels.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 11, featuring a prediction on Cincinnati Reds slugger Elly De La Cruz.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: May over 4.5 strikeouts (-105)
This is a light line for a starter and a solid play at this price.
We’re almost getting even-money odds for a pitcher with a slightly above-average K/9 rate coming off a season-high nine-strikeout game in his longest outing of the year (vs. the White Sox).
- The righty started the year 8-2 against this line.
- He’s 3-3 since, but faced three of the five-hardest teams to K (Royals, Padres and Nationals).
- May faced the Giants at home in that six-start stretch (fanning three), but now gets them on the road at their pitcher-friendly park.
San Francisco’s lineup has struggled over the last two weeks (83 wRC+) and has been a below-average offence at home.
May doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he misses enough. The Giants have cut down on Ks, but have the 10th-highest strikeout rate in MLB.
Key stat: Opposing starters have topped this line in seven of the Giants’ last 10 games.
Best MLB picks
Nelson under 17.5 outs (-114): Don’t overlook L.A. The club has a top-10 offence over the last two weeks and crushes bombs.
The Angels are fifth in MLB in homers and are getting good production out of the middle of their order.
July OPS:
- Taylor Ward: .821
- Jo Adell: .853
- Jorge Soler: .863
- Mike Trout: .967
Weather reports call for clear skies and light wind blowing out at Angel Stadium, consistently one of MLB’s top-hitting environments.
Nelson, who started the season in the bullpen, has been throwing great but has failed to touch 90 pitches in an outing.
He has cleared this line in consecutive starts after doing so once in his previous seven.
Jake Woodford kept Arizona’s bullpen in good shape yesterday, working three innings after Eduardo Rodriguez completed four frames.
In the three games before that, Diamondbacks starters went six, seven and eight innings.
Arizona’s bullpen will be in good shape tonight.
De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases (-125): German Marquez and the Colorado Rockies’ dreadful bullpen at Great American Ballpark… what could go wrong? Plenty.
I’d like a better price on this De La Cruz prop, but this is the cost of doing business.
De La Cruz’s home park is one of the game’s most hitter-friendly venues, which he takes full advantage of. And Marquez is one of the game’s most hitter-friendly pitchers.
The switch-hitting De La Cruz will start the game from the left side, which is where he primarily does damage.
De La Cruz’s OPS splits in his three seasons:
- OPS vs. RHPs: .912, .876, .799
- OPS vs. LHPs: .681, .661, .495
Lefty batters vs. Marquez: .312 average, .507 slugging, .882 OPS. Despite his home park being Coors Field, he’s been worse on the road (6.48 ERA vs. 5.03).
De La Cruz is batting .290 at home with an .858 OPS. He has multi-hit games in four of his last seven contests.
MLB prop picks made at 1:45 p.m. ET on 07/11/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.