In their final series before the Midsummer Classic, the Toronto Blue Jays are in Sacramento to face the Athletics.
Buoyed by a recent 10-game win streak, Toronto has been playing at a 116-win pace dating back to May 28. That includes a four-game sweep of the Athletics (May 29-June 1), who are tied for the third-worst record in MLB.
Check out our Blue Jays vs. Athletics preview for the July 11-13 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.
Blue Jays vs. Athletics preview: The streak
The impending all-star break isn’t coming at the best time for the Blue Jays, given that they’re currently the hottest club in MLB.
From June 29 through July 8, the Jays ripped off a 10-game win streak that marked their longest run of victories since 2015.
Five of those wins came against AL East foes (Red Sox, Yankees), and in the process, Toronto vaulted into the No. 1 spot in the division.
During the win streak, the Jays posted a 132 wRC+ as a team. For context, that’s the same as Manny Machado’s season-long wRC+.
A lineup-wide heater like that isn’t sustainable, but it’s nice to know what Toronto is capable of when things are going well.
Starting pitcher matchups
July 11: RHP Max Scherzer (0-0, 4.76 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Severino (2-10, 5.30 ERA)
- A thumb injury put Scherzer on the shelf for most of the spring, and he’s been on a pretty tight leash since returning on June 25. In his three starts since then, Scherzer has averaged 75.3 pitches and completed no more than 5.0 innings.
- Severino probably hates being pencilled in for a home start. He’s 0-8 in 11 outings at Sutter Health Park, with a 7.04 ERA and an .829 opponent OPS.
July 12: RHP Kevin Gausman (6-6, 4.13 ERA) vs. LHP Jacob Lopez (2-5, 4.26 ERA)
- Gausman’s splitter is working wonders this season. He’s allowing a .161 opponent BA on the pitch, per Baseball Savant, while generating a 37.2% whiff rate. The A’s have the third-highest whiff rate vs. splitters this season (39.3%).
- Lopez allowed seven earned runs in just 1.2 innings vs. the Blue Jays on May 29. But maybe that was a wake-up call. Since then, the southpaw has a 3.34 ERA and a 12.1 K/9 over seven starts.
July 13: RHP Jose Berrios (5-3, 3.53 ERA) vs. LHP Jeffrey Springs (7-6, 3.92 ERA)
- Berrios spun a gem against the A’s in late May, tossing 6.0 innings of scoreless, two-hit ball. He has a 31.0% K rate and a .203 opponent BA against the Athletics’ current lineup (71 plate appearances).
- Like Lopez, Springs got shellacked by the Jays in late May (2.0 IP, six earned runs) but has been on a roll ever since. In his past seven outings, he has a 2.76 ERA while allowing no more than three earned runs in a game.
Who’s hot and who’s not
George Springer (OF): Springer set a Blue Jays record for most RBI on Canada Day (7), setting the tone for an epic month. In July, the veteran outfielder has a .412/.487/.882 slash line in eight starts. He has five home runs, 13 RBI and 10 runs in that span from the No. 2 spot in the lineup.
Ernie Clement (INF): This will be an interesting series for Clement, who’s slumping hard right now but should see action with a pair of lefties due up in the A’s rotation. Clement is batting .220 with zero extra-base hits in the past two weeks… but he has a 1.074 OPS vs. southpaws this year.
Max Muncy (INF): He’s the lesser-known Max Muncy in pro ball, but the rookie is making a name for himself these days. In the past two weeks, his 170 wRC+ ranks 30th in MLB among 183 qualified hitters. He’s also scored a run in seven of his past 10 games.
Severino (SP): The veteran entered June with a sub-4.00 ERA, but the wheels have completely fallen off. He has an 8.03 ERA and a .297 xBA in his past seven outings.
Blue Jays vs. Athletics preview: Betting trends
- Toronto has the 2nd-best run line record in MLB (55-38, 59.1%).
- The Athletics have the 8th-worst run line record at home (19-28, 40.4%).
- Overs are 48-38-8 in A’s home games (1st in MLB).
- Overs are 21-18-2 when the Blue Jays are favourites (6th in MLB).
- Springer has cashed his 1.5 total bases prop in 6 of 8 starts this month.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is averaging 1.7 total bases since June 1. But he only has four HRs in 33 games over that span.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.