For Thursday’s MLB home run best, I’m targeting a hitter who excels against lefty pitching.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Jo Adell is finally making a name for himself several years after being a highly regarded prospect, and he’s been particularly hot in the past 20 games.
Check out the best MLB home run best bet and analysis for July 10.
MLB home run best bet
Best bet: Adell to hit a home run (+275)
Once upon a time, Adell was a top-10 draftee and a blue chip prospect.
Now he’s 26, in his sixth MLB season, and things are finally coming together.
The outfielder has an .819 OPS this season in 85 games and has been worth 1.1 bWAR. For context, he was worth a combined -0.6 bWAR through his first five years.
Adell is slugging .558 vs. left-handed pitchers, which definitely has my attention.
He’ll face LHP Patrick Corbin tonight at Angel Stadium, which is the fourth-friendliest HR venue for right-hitting players (17% more HRs than average), according to Baseball Savant.
Corbin hasn’t been as bad this year as in recent seasons, but his body of work is still one to target.
Dating back to the 2022 season, Corbin’s 5.45 ERA is the worst among 134 qualified pitchers. This year, his expected batting average (.278) ranks in the 15th percentile.
Key stat: Over his past 20 games, Adell has six homers and a .324/.414/.622 slash line.
MLB home run best bet made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 07/10/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.