The best MLB prop picks for Thursday feature two hitters and a fade on a starting pitcher.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Matt Olson and CJ Abrams are hot and I expect them both to take advantage of strong matchups tonight.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 10, featuring a prediction on Walker Buehler.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Olson over 1.5 total bases (-107)
I’d like a right-handed hitter against the Athletics’ JP Sears but the prices on Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley — the Atlanta Braves’ two best hitters — are steep.
Sears has been walloped by righties and pitched poorly at his home stadium, Sutter Health Park, one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the game.
But I won’t let the left-on-left matchup cause me to ignore how dangerous Olson has been.
For starters, he has handled southpaws just fine over the last two seasons:
| Situation | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 2025 vs. LHP | .290 | .340 | .495 |
| 2025 vs. RHP | .262 | .380 | .484 |
| 2024 vs. LHP | .263 | .321 | .515 |
| 2024 vs. RHP | .240 | .337 | .434 |
Further, he’s on a heater and can be had at good value.
- Olson has a 1.041 OPS in July.
- He has hit safely in 13 of his last 15 games, slashing .361/.426/.541 over that stretch.
Scoring is expected (the projected total is 10 runs as of Thursday morning), and the Braves are surely going to see some of the Athletics’ bottom-of-the-barrel bullpen, too (AL-worst 5.66 ERA).
Key stat: Olson is top 15 in MLB in average (.323) and wRC+ (168) since June 1.
Best MLB picks
Buehler under 15.5 outs (-125): The best offence in baseball, per wRC+, over the last 30 days belongs to the Houston Astros. The Tampa Bay Rays are No. 2.
Boston is on a heater, but the Rays are ahead of them in the standings. They hold a wild-card spot and are scoring the seventh-most runs per game.
Dynamite pitching performances from Brayan Bello (complete game) and Lucas Giolito (six scoreless) in consecutive games helped Boston preserve its bullpen ahead of this key final series before the break.
With fresh arms and plenty to play for, there’s no need to push Buehler, who has a difficult matchup at his offensive-minded home park.
- Buehler has thrown well in two starts against Tampa but has gone under this number in four straight. He’s 2-7 vs. this line since May.
- The veteran has an unsightly 6.25 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, allowing five-plus runs in four of his last seven outings.
- Tampa is batting an MLB-best .268 vs. righties.
Abrams over 0.5 runs (+102): There are several starters worth targeting tonight, and St. Louis Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas is one of them.
Lefty hitters are torching Mikolas, who has allowed 14 runs and eight homers in his last two outings. He has a 7.59 ERA since the start of June.
Mikolas will see two excellent left-handed hitters at the top of the Washington Nationals lineup, including Abrams.
- Abrams has scored in 58.4% of the games he’s started, per Team Rankings, which is second in MLB to Aaron Judge.
- The leadoff man has eight runs in as many games this month, scoring in all but one contest.
- Abrams enters with career-best numbers in all three slash categories and is getting on base at a .355 clip in July.
Washington’s shortstop hits in front of one of the game’s best hitters, James Wood, who is worth a look on the prop market as well.
MLB prop picks made at 10:50 a.m. ET on 07/10/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.