Thursday’s final MLB game takes place in San Diego when the Padres host the Diamondbacks.
The pregame narrative: Arizona hit four home runs in Wednesday’s series opener, which it won 8-2. Corbin Carroll contributed to the fireworks and is in a good spot to do damage against a struggling Randy Vasquez.
Check out my Diamondbacks vs. Padres best bet for July 10.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres best bet
Best bet: Carroll over 1.5 bases (-112)
Carroll is batting leadoff for the D-backs, which should mean at least four opportunities at the plate.
The outfielder hasn’t been hitting for average, which is fine, because he’s more than capable of cashing this bet with one swing.
- Carroll’s 2.26 total bases per game is the fourth-most in MLB.
- He is 4-3 against this line in his last seven games with two doubles, two triples, and a home run.
- Carroll is 5-for-10 against Vasquez with three doubles. His .461 xBA and .570 xSLG in those at-bats indicate those results aren’t fluky.
Vasquez owns a 3.79 ERA, which might seem fine on a surface level.
But he ranks in the 20th percentile or lower in walk rate, K rate, xERA and xBA.
Vaquez’s 5.78 xERA is noticeably higher than his 3.79 ERA, and his K rate (12.5%) and whiff rate (15.8%) both rank in the first percentile.
Carroll should be putting the ball in play tonight with authority.
Key stat: Caroll is slugging .619 vs. RHP this season and .595 on the road.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres best bet made at 9:45 a.m. ET on 07/10/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.