Sandy Alcantara headlines the best MLB prop picks for Wednesday’s all-day baseball action.
Today’s MLB props narrative: I don’t trust the struggling former Cy Young winner to pitch deep at a premium hitter’s park, making him a fade on his total outs prop.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 9, featuring predictions on Jarren Duran and Corey Seager.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Alcantara under 17.5 outs (+115)
The Miami Marlins right-hander has cleared this line in five of his last six outings, though he has allowed 12 runs over his last two starts and has a 4.89 ERA over that stretch.
It’s been a challenging first season back since undergoing Tommy John surgery.
- Despite elite velocity, Alcantara has a career-low strikeout rate and career-high ERA (7.01).
- Of 150 pitchers to throw at least 50 innings this season, his ERA is the highest of the bunch.
- The Marlins are in Cincinnati, meaning Alcantara is pitching in a difficult environment.
Great American Ballpark has been the third-most hitter-friendly venue in baseball over the last three seasons and the second-best park to go deep at, according to Baseball Savant.
While Alcantara has never struggled much with the long ball, he does sport a career-high HR/9 rate.
Another layer I’m considering is that Miami has gotten decent length from its starters over the last three games. The Marlins play through to the all-star break, concluding a stretch of games in 13 straight days to close out the first half.
So their bullpen has been given a breather of sorts at an opportune time.
Key stat: Alcantara is 6-11 against this line and allowed four-plus runs 10 times this season.
Best MLB picks
Seager over 1.5 total bases (-115): The Texas Rangers star is heating up, recording a hit in 12 of his last 13 games and driving the ball with authority.
- Seager has six bombs over that stretch.
- He’s hitting .333 and slugging .771. His OPS is 1.247.
- The shortstop has scored 15 times and driven in 12 runs.
Thanks to the tear, Seager’s season-long OPS has spiked from .710 to .830.
Seager does damage vs. righties and sees a hittable one tonight in the Los Angeles Angels’ Kyle Hendricks (4.68 ERA, bottom-10 K rate among qualifiers).
The 31-year-old Seager has an .860 OPS against right-handers. He had a .944 mark last season and 1.075 in 2023.
Seager has topped this line in five of seven July games.
Duran over 0.5 RBI (+128): Don’t look now, but the Boston Red Sox are hot. And so is Duran.
Duran has been a disappointment following his 2024 breakout, but here’s what he’s done over his last 15 games:
- .273/.344/.545
- 9 extra-base hits
- 9 RBI
He was recently dropped out of the leadoff spot, hitting seventh last night and no higher than cleanup over his last four games.
That has made him a great look on the RBI market for Boston, which has won five straight, scoring nine-plus runs four times.
The Red Sox have scored 19 on the Rockies in the first two games of this series. Tonight, they see Colorado’s worst arm, Antonio Senzatela, and a bullpen that has the fifth-highest ERA in baseball.
Lefties are hitting .364 off Senzatela with a .937 OPS.
Duran is much better at home (.294 average, .866 OPS vs. .226/.620) and should have multiple chances to cash runners tonight.
MLB prop picks made at 10:05 a.m. ET on 07/09/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.