New York Mets star Juan Soto highlights Tuesday’s top MLB prop picks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Soto is tearing the cover off the ball and has a plus matchup against the Baltimore Orioles tonight. Look for the all-star snub to do damage.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 8, featuring predictions on Ryan Pepiot and Jurickson Profar.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Soto over 1.5 total bases (+104)
Soto has taken plenty of flak in his debut season with the Mets after signing a mega contract, but he’s suddenly up to 21 homers, a .904 OPS, leads MLB in walk rate and is eighth in wRC+.
The 26-year-old stud has especially been raking of late. Here’s a look at his last 15 games:
- .353/.450/.784
- 7 homers
- 13 runs
- 14 RBI
Soto doesn’t cash his total bases prop at the same rate as other star hitters due to his walk rate, but he has supreme power (.245 ISO, top 20 in MLB) and elite batted-ball metrics, ranking in the 99th percentile in expected slugging and average exit velocity.
The Mets will see Orioles starter Brandon Young, who has struggled (7.02 ERA) in all four of his MLB outings.
Young has yet to complete five innings, allowing three-plus runs each time out. Left-handed batters are hitting .333 off him with a 1.008 OPS.
Following Young will be an Orioles bullpen that ranks in the bottom third in MLB in home run rate and ERA.
There are some weather concerns tonight, but Camden Yards has been one of the best offensive environments and home run-hitting venues in baseball this season.
Key stat: Soto is slugging .685 since June 1, the second-best mark in baseball.
Best MLB picks
Profar over 0.5 RBI (+175): Profar is just five games back from his PED suspension, but he’s off to a good start.
- Hits in 4 of the 5 games
- Two multi-hit games
- 2 home runs
The sample is too small to take much from, but the veteran is coming off the best season of his career (24 homers, .839 OPS) and hits behind some excellent bats in the Atlanta Braves lineup.
Profar hit .300 and slugged .500 vs. lefties last year and sees one tonight (Jeffrey Springs) at a great hitter’s stadium.
The Athletics’ Sutter Health Park ranks tied for the top hitting environment in baseball, alongside Coors Field.
Profar hit leadoff last game but typical No. 1 hitter Ronald Acuna Jr. had the day off. He had been in the cleanup and No. 5 spots since his return.
Pepiot over 5.5 Ks (-114): The Tampa Bay Rays righty followed up one of his worst performances of the season with a nine-strikeout gem his last time out.
Pepiot is generally enjoying another strong season, his second with the Rays.
He can miss bats with several offerings, leading to an above-average K rate and more hits than misses on this prop lately.
- Pepiot has cleared this line in five of his last six outings, including once vs. the Detroit Tigers, his opponent tonight.
- The 27-year-old threw five innings of three-hit, one-run ball with seven Ks against the Tigers on June 21.
- Detroit has the sixth-highest K rate in MLB vs. right-handers.
MLB prop picks made at 1:13 p.m. ET on 07/08/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.