Trevor Story and Manny Machado are my home run targets for Monday’s MLB slate.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: The wind is projected to blow out hard to the Green Monster at Fenway Park tonight, and the right-hitting Story has a platoon advantage. Elsewhere, Manny Machado should do damage against a familiar foe.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 7.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Story to hit a home run (+280)
According to Swish Analytics, the wind will be blowing out to left field at roughly 10 mph through the first two hours of this contest.
That means Colorado Rockies’ lefty Austin Gomber could be in a world of trouble against a few of Boston’s top hitters.
Story has been swinging a red-hot bat, slashing .469/.500/.875 with three home runs over an eight-game hit streak. Yesterday, he sent this towering shot out of Nationals Park for his 14th home run of the year:
Gomber has only made four starts this year since being activated from the IL, and the early results haven’t been encouraging:
- 5.49 ERA
- 1.53 WHIP
- Four HRs, six Ks
The lefty posted an ERA north of 4.50 from 2021-2024, though, and ranked in the bottom 10th percentile for xERA, xBA, and K rate last year, so this was to be expected.
Key stat: Right-hitting batters are slashing .352/.378/.620 vs. Gomber this year, and Story is slashing .279/.311/.465 against LHP.
Best HR predictions
Machado to hit a home run (+425): The San Diego Padres open up a three-game set against the divisional rival Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, and I think the home team is set to tee off.
D-backs starter Zac Gallen is having a nightmare season, posting career-worst numbers in:
- ERA (5.45)
- WHIP (1.37)
- OBA (.249)
- K/9 (8.5)
Gallen has given up 10 home runs in his last six starts and has the fifth-highest HR/9 rate (1.7) among all qualified pitchers.
Machado has seen plenty of Gallen, going 6-for-25 with a home run. But the advanced metrics suggest he’s been a tad unlucky.
The power-hitting third baseman has a .343 xBA and .704 xSLG in those at-bats.
I expect Machado to utilize that familiarity to capitalize against a struggling pitcher.
MLB home run picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 07/07/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.