Seiya Suzuki headlines Saturday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: The perfect storm is brewing at Wrigley Field for a home run fest, and Suzuki profiles as the man to bet on. Elsewhere, Rafael Devers should be able to lock in against an old foe from his AL East days with the Boston Red Sox.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 5.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Suzuki to hit a home run (+220)
According to Swish Analytics, the wind will be blowing out at over 10 mph to centre field at Wrigley today.
Add in the fact that struggling lefty Matthew Liberatore is pitching, and I love Suzuki’s chances of going yard.
The Cardinals’ starter had a 5.14 ERA across five starts in June, and his advanced metrics paint an even better picture for this wager:
- 19.9% K rate (34th percentile)
- 4.5% walk rate (95th percentile)
- 44.1% hard-hit rate (25th percentile)
Basically 75% of at-bats against Liberatore end up with the ball in play, and almost half of those balls are crushed. For context, a hard-hit ball is defined as anything with an exit velocity over 95 mph.
Suzuki has a noticeable platoon advantage against Liberatore (.300/.379/.611 slash line vs. LHP), and has gone deep in three of his last six games.
Key stat: Suzuki’s 24 home runs are the sixth-most in MLB.
Best HR predictions
Devers to hit a home run (+235): Just like in Chicago, the wind is blowing out strongly to centre in Sacramento at Sutter Health Park.
The Athletics’ temporary home is already the most hitter-friendly venue in baseball, so naturally, this has caught my attention.
Luis Severino is pitching for the A’s, and he’s coming off a disastrous month.
- 7.71 ERA
- 1.71 WHIP
- .315 batting average
The right-hander gave up seven home runs in six starts with just 17 strikeouts. That’s extremely troubling and is something I hope the Giants and Devers can capitalize on.
Devers has a ton of experience against Severino from when the latter was a Yankee, and the results skew heavily in the pitcher’s favour (3-for-22, seven Ks).
But that was a long time ago, and Devers still has a platoon advantage. I think he can find a way to hit an old foe hard.
MLB home run picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 07/04/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.