The two teams that have defined the last decade of MLB, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, collide on Friday night.
The pregame narrative: Both Houston and Los Angeles are in fine form ahead of this contest, making this a must-see matchup. Tonight’s pitching duel isn’t elite, meaning there should be plenty of offence.
Check out my Astros vs. Dodgers predictions, including a prop pick for Cam Smith.
Astros vs. Dodgers predictions
Parlay: Astros +2.5 | Over 8.5 runs | Smith over 1.5 total bases (+360)
Astros +2.5 (-225): This feels like a very comfy margin to back Houston by in this contest.
Very rarely do the Astros lose by three-plus runs. They’ve covered this number in nine of their last 10 games, winning eight of those contests outright.
Houston will also benefit from facing one of Los Angeles’s back-of-the-rotation arms in Ben Casparius. Casparius enters tonight’s game with a 3.97 ERA and is coming off one of his worst starts of the season.
The righty allowed eight hits and six runs across four innings of work against the Kansas City Royals.
His numbers have really tapered off over his last five starts:
- 7.13 ERA
- 5.02 FIP
- 24 hits in 17.2 innings pitched
I expect the Astros to score plenty and cover this lofty spread.
MLB SGP legs
Over 8.5 runs (-162): Casparius isn’t the only pitcher who enters tonight’s game with a dubious resume.
I expect Lance McCullers Jr. to struggle against a loaded Dodgers lineup.
McCullers’ 6.61 ERA and 5.63 FIP are mightily concerning marks. Equally worrisome are his first percentile chase rates and hard-hit percentages per Baseball Savant.
The over on this total has cashed in five of McCullers’ eight starts this season.
Conversely, the Dodgers have gone over this mark in 19 of Casparius’ 25 appearances.
Overs are always in play for Los Angeles as it boasts the third-best over percentage in the majors (55.8%).
Smith over 1.5 total bases (+143): Lastly, I’m looking for Houston’s hottest hitter to keep slugging.
Smith has been an absolute machine over his last seven games:
- .500 batting average
- .821 SLG
- 1.370 OPS
- 23 total bases
The Astros’ right fielder is averaging 3.3 bases per game during this stretch, putting him well within range of clearing this total.
Smith has recorded two-plus hits in six of his last seven games. I really like his chances of cashing against a struggling pitcher in Casparius.
Astros vs. Dodgers predictions made at 2:46 p.m. ET on 07/04/2025.
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Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.