The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks wrap up their four-game series in the desert on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: San Francisco’s offence has gone ice cold lately, averaging just 2.4 runs in its last five games. But the Giants have a sizeable pitching advantage tonight with Robbie Ray starting opposite Brandon Pfaadt, and are favoured to win.
Check out my Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions, including props on Rafael Devers and Geraldo Perdomo.
Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions
Parlay: Giants +0.5 F5 | Devers over 1.5 bases | Perdomo over 0.5 hits (+330)
Giants +0.5 – first 5 innings (-180): It’s hard to back the Giants in any capacity right now. San Fran went a combined 1-5 against the Miami Marlins and Chicago White Sox before losing the first two games of this series against the D-backs.
But the Giants won last night, and now have their ace on the mound with a chance to make it two in a row.
Ray is flashing elite form at the moment, boasting a 2.75 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 17 starts. He also ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA (2.91), xBA (.208) and K rate (27.5%).
Pfaadt, meanwhile, has been a disaster for the Diamondbacks:
- 5.38 ERA (6.80 xERA)
- .280 BA (.319 xBA)
- 19.1% K rate (29th percentile)
So in spite of their recent struggles, backing the Giants to at least be tied through five innings seems safe to me.
MLB SGP legs
Devers over 1.5 bases (-110): Devers is struggling to find footing with his new team, but Pfaadt is an A-plus slumpbuster.
The only thing the righty has done well this year is limit walks (5.6% BB rate, 85th percentile), which is what I love to see when targeting a bases prop.
Pfaadt is going to give Devers something to hit, and it’s probably going to get hit quite hard.
Devers ranks in the 98th percentile for hard hit rate and has made a career out of crushing right-handed pitching (.548 SLG, 111 OPS+).
Perdomo over 0.5 hits (-205): If you’re looking for value, this is a great way to double the parlay’s payout from +163 to +330.
The switch-hitting Perdomo has been on fire this series, and does his best work against lefties.
- Perdomo vs. Giants: 6-for-12
- Perdomo vs. LHP: .337/.394/.453 slash line
The shortstop is far from a power bat, but that’s fine.
Think of Perdomo as a Luis Arraez light. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in K rate, Whiff rate, and square up percentage, and in the 16th percentile for hard-hit rate.
He should be able to put one in play against Ray tonight.
Giants vs. Dodgers predictions made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 07/03/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.