The Toronto Blue Jays are one win away from sweeping the New York Yankees and sitting alone atop the AL East.
The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence has exploded for 28 runs across the first three games of this series, but New York is a slight favourite with Clarke Schmidt pitching opposite Chris Bassitt. The Yankees’ righty was spectacular in June, posting a 1.95 ERA.
Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 3, featuring Schmidt and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks
Best Bet: Schmidt over 17.5 outs (-141)
Schmidt’s run of dominance actually started on May 28, when he threw six shutout innings against the Los Angeles Angels.
Take a look at his numbers from that game onward:
- 1.64 ERA
- .157 BA (.172 xBA)
- 24% K rate, 4% BB rate
- 18+ outs in five of six starts
Schmidt’s .172 xBA indicates those results were no fluke, and his 4% walk rate tells me he won’t burn through pitches against Toronto.
The righty is a contact pitcher, and the Jays strike out at the lowest clip in MLB. So it’s also important that Schmidt ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity.
New York has had to use plenty of relievers this series and is back at it tomorrow for a Subway Series against the Mets. I’m sure Aaron Boone would love to give Schmidt a longer leash tonight.
Key stat: Schmidt has pitched into the sixth inning in 10 of his 13 starts, clearing this line eight times.
Quick picks
Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (-106): I’m not expecting a no-hitter from Schmidt, and think Vladdy is the man to target on Toronto’s side of things.
Guerrero is batting .302 with a 1.026 OPS in his last 15 games. Perhaps more importantly, he has only two strikeouts in his last eight outings.
Putting the ball in play is key for a bases prop, and Guerrero has done that plenty against Schmidt.
He is just 2-for-13 against the righty, but only one of those at-bats ended in a strikeout. And he has a .322 xBA and .519 xSLG in those matchups.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:06 a.m. ET on 07/03/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.