The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees for a Canada Day matinee.
The pregame narrative: Toronto won the series opener, 5-4, and now sits just two games behind New York in a crowded AL East. The Yankees are favoured to win today behind southpaw Max Fried, who sports MLB’s second-best ERA (1.92), while Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays.
Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for July 1, featuring Alejandro Kirk.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets
Best bet: Blue Jays over 3.5 runs (+120)
Fading an arm like Fried is risky business, especially given the month he just had.
New York’s southpaw logged five consecutive quality starts (6.0+ IP, three or fewer earned runs), and posted a 1.91 ERA.
But I think Toronto is capable of doing some damage in front of a packed home crowd on Tuesday.
The Blue Jays’ season seemingly turned around with a four-game sweep of the Athletics at home from May 29 to June 2. These are their offensive ranks from then onward:
- 1st in K rate (14.8%)
- 2nd in batting average (.280)
- 2nd in wRC+ (122)
- 4th in OPS (.788)
And it’s not like Toronto is slowing down — it ranks inside the top 10 for K rate, batting average and wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Fried’s 1.92 ERA and .204 opponent batting average are stellar, but his 3.30 xERA and .242 xBA indicate he’s been slightly lucky.
Ket stat: Toronto is averaging 5.71 runs across its last seven games, going 6-1 agianst this line.
Quick pick
Kirk over 1.5 bases (+155): This seems like a great price for Kirk, who had a stellar June and crushes left-handed pitching.
- Toronto’s catcher slashed .337/.385/.528 in June with five doubles and four home runs.
- He is batting .323 against LHPs this year and is 2-for-6 lifetime against Fried. In those at-bats, he has a .440 xBA and .741 xSLG.
Fried rarely issues free passes (4.9% walk rate, 93rd percentile) and Kirk seldom strikes out (9.8% K rate, 98th percentile). That means the ball should be put in play on the majority of his at-bats today, which is great for a bases prop.
Kirk ranks in the 98th percentile for hard-hit rate (55.9%), so I expect those balls to travel.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets made at 11:05 a.m. ET on 07/01/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.