It’s Canada Day, and that means afternoon baseball for the Toronto Blue Jays in front of a jam-packed holiday crowd.
The pregame narrative: Max Fried (10-2, 1.92 ERA) faces Kevin Gausman (6-6, 4.21 ERA) for the second time this season. In the first go-round, on April 27, the New York Yankees cruised to an 11-2 victory at home.
Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 1, featuring Gausman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks
Best Bet: Chisholm over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+100)
Vibes were low for Chisholm at the end of April. He closed out the month batting .181 and hit the injured list with an oblique strain shortly thereafter.
But since his return at the start of June, things have been different. And by that, I mean much better.
Chisholm has homered in four of his past five games. Here’s what the infielder accomplished throughout the past month:
- .318 BA
- .614 SLG
- 7 HR
- 2.7 hits/runs/RBI per start
- 2+ hits/runs/RBI in 16 of 23 starts
Chisholm strikes out a lot, but when he puts wood on the ball, the contact is usually elite.
According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 8th percentile in strikeout rate and the 95th percentile in barrel rate.
At 8.6 K/9, Gausman isn’t having a dominant strikeout season on the mound (more on that later). Chisholm is wielding a platoon advantage and a hot bat, which is an excellent combo to buy in on.
The left-hitting Chisholm is slugging .577 against right-handed pitchers this season (compared to a .321 SLG vs. lefties).
Key stat: Chisholm is 10-2 vs. this prop in his past 12 games.
Quick picks
Gausman under 6.5 Ks (-150): New York has the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the past 30 days, which makes this under feel a twinge risky.
But Gausman just hasn’t been a reliable strikeout force this season.
- Under 6.5 Ks is 11-5 for Gausman this year. He’s averaging 5.6 Ks per outing.
- Gausman has middling percentile rankings in whiff rate (57th percentile) and K rate (61st).
The Yankees have also really had Gausman’s number lately. Since the start of the 2024 season, he has allowed 25 runs in five starts (11.50 ERA) and has gone under 6.5 Ks four times.
Gausman does rank in the 80th percentile in chase rate … but the Yankees’ offence has the lowest chase rate in the majors (25.5%).
Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+130): Guerrero went 0-for-3 against Fried earlier this year, but it’s difficult to back off this prop price for Toronto’s premier slugger right now.
In his past 21 games, Guerrero is 14-7 vs. this prop while posting a .312/.404/.558 slash line. That includes a 2-for-4 effort with a double and three RBI last night.
Fried is certainly an upper-tier lefty, and that context matters, but Vladdy has been a great bet against southpaws as a whole this season.
He ranks 12th among 161 qualified hitters in wRC+ vs. LHPs (174), which equates to a .982 OPS.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 07/01/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.