Denis Shapovalov kicks off his Wimbledon campaign as a heavy favourite against Mariano Navone on Canada Day.
The pre-match narrative: Shapovalov is in poor form right now, sporting a 3-7 record since moving to clay in April. Nonetheless, the Canadian is expected to win his opening match at the All England Club against the No. 91-ranked Navone.
Check out our Navone vs. Shapovalov odds and my best bet for the July 1 tennis match.
Navone vs. Shapovalov odds
Full Wimbledon betting markets
| Navone vs. Shapovalov | Betting odds |
| Navone to win | +500 |
| Shapovalov to win | -800 |
| Navone +2.5 sets | -125 |
| Shapovalov -2.5 sets | -112 |
| Navone +7.5 games | -134 |
| Shapovalov -7.5 games | +100 |
| Over 3.5 sets | -120 |
| Under 3.5 sets | -120 |
| Over 33.5 games | -118 |
| Under 33.5 games | -118 |
Wimbledon odds as of 12:15 p.m. on 06/30/2025.
Best men’s tennis pick
Best bet: Over 3.5 sets (-120)
Do I think Shapovalov will win his opening match? Sure. But I doubt it happens in straight sets.
The Canadian is 1-2 on grass this year, with his lone win coming via tiebreak over Ugo Humbert at the Terra Wortmann Open on June 17.
Shapovalov is now 9-12 on grass since advancing to the Wimbledon semifinal in 2021.
Navone is a +540 underdog at the time of writing, and that’s probably due to his lack of experience on the surface.
The Argentine is just 1-5 lifetime on grass, while playing a whopping 356 matches on clay — most coming on the challenger tour. Still, I expect the 24-year-old to put up a fight.
Navone ranks 12th in return rating (149.2) on the ATP Tour this year, ahead of names like Lorenzo Musetti, Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev.
That should be enough to win a break or two, and eventually a set.
Key stat: Navone wins 25.0% of his return games, the 14th-most on tour.
Tennis predictions made at 11:40 a.m. on 06/30/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.