The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers for Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a force in this series, especially at home, where he is averaging 31.8 points, making the Thunder difficult to beat. The Indiana Pacers are led by depth, needing one more win to shock the NBA world.
Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Game 7 on June 22, featuring Gilgeous-Alexander and Aaron Nesmith.
Pacers vs. Thunder predictions
Parlay: Thunder -4.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Nesmith 2+ threes (+290)
Thunder -4.5 (-195): OKC has been incredible at home in the postseason. It’s won 10 of 12 games, covering a -4.5 spread in each of those wins.
Indiana was one of those two teams to take a game in Oklahoma City, but the Thunder seemingly erased those demons, winning by double-digit points in the two games at home since.
This isn’t something new in the playoffs. OKC went 36-6 at home in the regular season. So it’s really hard to bet against a team that only lost eight games in its building heading into Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
On top of that, the Thunder has an average point differential of +20.6 at Paycom Center in the postseason.
NBA SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-190): The 2024-25 MVP is a large part of the Thunder’s home success.
- Gilgeous-Alexander is 10-2 against this over in Oklahoma City.
- The two games he fell shy of this total were in the opening series vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. He’s cleared this mark in 10 straight since.
- That includes the Finals, where SGA is averaging 34.3 PPG at home.
The Canadian is the best scorer in the NBA, and his floor grows even higher when playing in front of the Thunder faithful.
He should be in line for another big performance with the Larry O’Brien up for grabs in a winner-take-all Game 7.
Nesmith 2+ threes (-156): Nesmith has been a sniper for the Pacers in the playoffs.
- He’s averaging 2.7 makes on 5.3 3-point attempts in the playoffs.
- He’s 16-6 against this line (5-1 in the Finals).
Nesmith shot 43.1% from deep in the regular season, which ranked 10th in the NBA.
With efficiency like that, he doesn’t need many attempts to cash the over on this modest total.
And that’s music to my ears when backing a 3-point prop with this good of value.
Pacers vs. Thunder predictions made at 1:07 p.m. ET 06/21/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.