The Toronto Blue Jays aim to sweep the Arizona Diamondbacks during Thursday’s matinee at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has won four straight home series and is favoured to break out the brooms this afternoon behind Kevin Gausman (4.08 ERA). Arizona, losers of five straight road games, counters with Ryne Nelson (4.14 ERA).
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Diamondbacks for June 19, featuring Nelson and Addison Barger.
Blue Jays picks vs. Diamondbacks
Best Bet: Nelson under 3.5 Ks (-110)
This is a low line for a pitcher, but Nelson is far from a workhorse.
The righty has largely been used as a bulk reliever this season, despite starting in five of his 15 appearances. In those outings, he’s gone under this total four times, while landing on four Ks in the outlier.
Nelson has also never thrown north of 84 pitches this season, and has a 33rd-percentile K rate (19.8%), per Baseball Savant.
That would make him a compelling fade candidate against most teams. So against Toronto, I view this as a smash play.
- The Jays have the lowest K rate (18.0%) and the lowest whiff rate (21.5%) in MLB.
- Toronto ranks third in batting average (.267), slugging percentage (.436), and wRC+ (119) over the past 30 days.
- Arizona starters Brandon Pfaadt (5.0 IP, three Ks) and Eduardo Rodriguez (4.2 IP, four Ks) have struggled to rack up strikeouts through the first two games of this series.
Key stat: Nelson is 1-5 against a 3.5 K line when throwing 4.0+ innings.
Quick pick
Barger over 1.5 bases (+114): Barger broke out in a big way against the Texas Rangers last month and has shown no signs of slowing down. Just check out what he’s done over the last 20 games.
- .324/.377/.676 slash line
- Seven doubles, six HRs
- 2+ bases 12 times
The 25-year-old is 5-for-9 this series with three doubles and a walk-off home run.
It looks like Toronto has finally found a lefty power bat.
Nelson has excellent splits against left-hitting batters this year, holding them to a .181 batting average. But Bargers’ slugging percentage versus righties (.543) is noticeably higher than his mark against lefties (.397).
I’ll ride with the red-hot hitter in this matchup.
Blue Jays picks made at 8:40 a.m. ET on 06/19/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.