The Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies wrap up their series at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Philadelphia is favoured to win this game and sweep the series with Zach Wheeler (6-2, 2.85 ERA) on the bump. Toronto counters with Jose Berrios (2-2, 3.38 ERA), who has been stellar on the road.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Phillies for June 15, with predictions on Berrios and Alejandro Kirk.
Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies
Best Bet: Berrios over 4.5 strikeouts (-115)
I think this is a good spot to back Berrios, who is beginning to find some consistency on the mound.
Toronto’s righty has solid road splits and consistently works deep enough into games where he should have opportunities to clear this total.
- Berrios has pitched into the sixth inning in 10 straight starts, logging five straight quality starts (6.0 IP, three or fewer ER).
- He has a 2.50 ERA on the road (4.05 at home), holding opponents to a .215 BA (.247 at home).
Berrios isn’t a big swing-and-miss arm by any means. His 20.8% K rate and 23.6% Whiff rate rank in the 41st and 40th percentile, respectively, per Baseball Savant.
But he’s performed much better against this Phillies lineup — 24.7% K rate across 77 plate appearances — and cleared this line when he pitched against them on June 5.
Toronto’s bullpen has already thrown 7.1 innings this series, so I expect Berrios to get a longer leash today.
Key stat: Berrios is 4-4 against this line since May 1, with at least four strikeouts in six of those starts.
Quick pick
Kirk to record an RBI (+225): I’ll take a big swing on Kirk to record an RBI, which might seem daunting against a Cy Young-calibre arm like Wheeler.
But we can’t forget how hot Toronto’s bats have been lately and how productive Kirk has been. Take a look at what the group has done over the last three weeks:
- 4.89 runs per game (fifth)
- .270 batting average (second)
- 118 wRC+ (fourth)
- .329 OBP (sixth)
In that same span, Kirk is slashing an otherworldly .417/.447/.583 with 13 RBI in 16 games.
Rotowire projects the catcher to bat cleanup behind Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Addison Barger, which is an A-plus spot for run production.
I’m not saying this will be a gimmie — Wheeler has the fourth-best WHIP (0.90) in baseball and a 2.13 ERA since the start of May.
But at this price, I’ll happily sprinkle on a red-hot hitter.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 06/15/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.