The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers meet for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday.
The pregame narrative: OKC is heavily favoured to win this contest and the Larry O’Brien Trophy after levelling the series on Friday night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went berserk in the fourth quarter and is the frontrunner to win Finals MVP.
Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder best bets for Game 5, featuring Chet Holmgren.
Pacers vs. Thunder best bets
Best bet: Holmgren over 25.5 points and rebounds (-108)
Holmgren has smashed this line in consecutive games thanks to monster performances on the glass, and there’s good reason to believe that continues:
- Game 3: 20 points, 10 rebounds
- Game 4: 14 points, 15 rebounds
Indiana is relatively undersized and ranks 12th among 16 playoff teams in rebounding rate (48.0%).
The wiry Holmgren stands at 7-foot-1 and has been getting plenty of run from Mark Daigneault after being used sparingly through the first two games of this series.
Holmgren got 35 and 37 minutes the last two games after playing 24 and 28 minutes the first two. OKC can run away with things, especially at home, but it would be foolish for the squad to take its foot off the gas with three games to play.
Daigneault should give his talented power forward a ton of run on three days’ rest as the season reaches an epic conclusion.
Key stat: Indiana has gotten torched by power forwards this season. It has allowed the ninth-most points (23.87) and second-most rebounds (11.50) per game to the position, according to Fantasy Pros.
NBA Finals Game 5 picks
Pacers +10.5 (-134): I said the Thunder can run away with things at home, but I don’t necessarily expect them to.
Indiana has been neck-and-neck with OKC this series, outside of a 16-point loss in Game 2. And on the whole, Rick Carlisle’s squad has been dynamite on the road all season.
- 8-2 road record in the playoffs
- +0.4 road net rating in playoffs (third among playoff teams)
- 19-12 ATS as a road underdog, regular season and playoffs (fourth in NBA)
A lot of things had to go right for OKC to win on Friday night, including a herculean fourth quarter from Gilgeous-Alexander and Indiana shooting a collective 42.5% from the field.
Overall, the Pacers have had a better true shooting percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio in the Finals. If they take care of the ball, this should be close.
Pacers vs. Thunder best bets made at 3:04 p.m. ET 06/14/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.