A massive Game 4 in the NBA Finals is coming up tonight from Indiana.
The pregame narrative: A win for the Pacers pushes them to a 3-1 series lead that no one would’ve seen coming. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder can reclaim home-court advantage with a win as road favourites.
Check out my Thunder vs. Pacers SGP predictions for Game 4 on June 13, featuring Chet Holmgren and Bennedict Mathurin.
Thunder vs. Pacers predictions
Parlay: Pacers +9.5 | Holmgren 15+ points | Mathurin 10+ points (+340)
Pacers +9.5 (-210): After losing Game 1 in jaw-dropping fashion, the Thunder responded with a comfortable 16-point win in Game 2.
After losing Game 3, OKC is expected to come out and level the series again. But even if that does happen, I doubt it’ll be in blowout fashion.
- Indiana is 6-3 ATS at home in the postseason (with two outright wins as an underdog).
- Indiana is 7-2 SU with a +6.2 net rating at home.
- In Game 3 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, neither team led by more than nine points at any time in the game.
- The Pacers have covered a +9.5 spread in 8 of 9 home games (and in 15 of 19 playoff games overall).
Indiana is just as deep as OKC, so the two-day turnaround from the last game shouldn’t be an issue. And of course, a raucous home crowd should help the Pacers.
NBA SGP legs
Holmgren 15+ points (-139): Holmgren and fellow 7-footer Isaiah Hartenstein were rarely healthy at the same time during the regular season. So it was difficult to know who’d be the primary big when crunch time came around.
Well, we’re here now, and Holmgren is the guy who’s stepped up.
The second-year centre is far more involved offensively than his veteran counterpart, and it showed in his Game 3 performance:
- 35 minutes
- 20 points
- 6-of-15 shooting
Despite an 0-for-6 night from deep, Holmgren cashed this scoring milestone with ease.
He went 8-for-9 from the free-throw line, which is an uncharacteristically high volume. But it’s nice to see that he can take it to the rack if his outside shooting is off.
Since the start of the conference finals, Holmgren is 6-2 vs. this scoring milestone while averaging 16.4 PPG.
Mathurin 10+ points (-155): Indiana should continue to let Mathurin cook.
The Montreal native has had an up-and-down postseason, but he’s riding a really nice wave right now.
Mathurin is 4-2 vs. this prop in his past six games. He’s shooting 59.1% from the field and averaging 6.8 free-throw attempts in that span.
Shot volume is the primary concern for Mathurin, but he should be emboldened to continue firing after scoring a postseason-high 27 points last time out. He did that on 9-of-12 shooting.
Thunder vs. Pacers predictions made at 9:30 a.m. ET 06/13/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.