Two starting pitchers and J.P. Crawford make up today’s top MLB prop picks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Atlanta Braves righty Grant Holmes has consistently been clearing his outs line and I expect him to do it again against the Milwaukee Brewers. Dylan Cease, meanwhile, is fade-worthy in a challenging matchup vs. the powerful Los Angeles Dodgers.
Check out my best MLB prop bets for Tuesday, June 10.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Crawford over 0.5 runs (+100)
Crawford sits atop the Seattle Mariners’ lineup with a team-leading .285 average and .402 on-base percentage.
Those marks are even a little better vs. righties (.314, .411), and he’ll see a struggling one tonight.
The Mariners run into the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Brandon Pfaadt, who’s having a forgettable season following a strong sophomore year.
- Pfaadt’s Ks are way down, his homers are up and his hard-hit rate has soared, leading to a 5.51 ERA (6.95 xERA).
- He has allowed 14 runs over his last two starts and punched out two or fewer in three of his last four.
The Diamondbacks had to use seven relievers in yesterday’s extra-inning win, so they probably won’t be quick to turn to their bullpen unless Pfaadt is getting rocked.
Either way, we’re looking at a good scenario. If Pfaadt is getting lit, that’s good news for this play. And if not, it will give Crawford and the Mariners more opportunities against a scuffling arm.
Crawford will bat in front of Julio Rodriguez (.323 BA in June) and Cal Raleigh, the MLB leader in homers.
Key stat: Crawford is slashing .400/.500/.500 in June.
Best MLB picks
Cease under 16.5 outs (-105): Not only has Cease struggled to top this line, but he’s up against the best right-handed hitting team in the majors.
The Dodgers pace MLB with a 128 wRC+ vs. RHPs.
Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman are both slugging over .600 against righties with an OPS north of 1.000. That has helped power the Dodgers to top MLB ranks in these categories as well:
- BB rate (10.5%)
- AVG (.269)
- OBP (.349)
A league-averageish walk rate and high volume of strikeouts run up Cease’s pitch counts, leading to a 5-8 mark against this line.
Holmes over 16.5 outs (-106): Holmes is coming off his shortest start of the season (3.1 innings), but is still 8-2 against this line over his last 10 outings.
Holmes gets the Milwaukee Brewers, who are 25th in MLB in wRC+ vs. right-handers and 28th in slugging.
They have a putrid 77 wRC+ (27th in MLB) at their pitcher-friendly home park, making this a good bounce-back spot for Holmes.
Before the clunker in his last start, Holmes put up a 3.22 ERA with a 9.41 K/9 rate in six May outings.
MLB prop picks made at 1 p.m. ET on 06/10/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.