Knotted at one game apiece, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers resume their NBA Finals matchup on Wednesday night.
The pregame narrative: OKC is a road favourite in Game 3 after a convincing home victory last time out. The Pacers have deployed a remarkably balanced offence, with zero 20-point scorers through two games.
I’m targeting Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Tyrese Haliburton in my Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks on June 11.
Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks
Best bet: Williams under 27.5 points/rebounds (-122)
Williams soared to new heights in his third NBA season, setting career-highs in points (21.6/game) and rebounds (5.3/game) while earning third-team All-NBA honours.
But he wasn’t routinely clearing this points/rebounds line then, and he’s certainly not doing so now.
Williams is the No. 2 scoring option for the Thunder, but it’s been a pretty streaky postseason. He’s gone under 20 points in 10 of his past 14 games.
Though Williams is listed as the Thunder’s starting power forward, he isn’t a typical big man. He’s 6-foot-5 and spends plenty of time roaming the perimeter, too.
OKC has two 7-footers — Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — who are currently playing in a staggered way that ensures a traditional big is always on the floor.
In my view, that lowers Williams’ ceiling as a rebounder.
Williams is shooting just 37.7% vs. the Pacers in four matchups this year, averaging 18.5 points and 3.8 rebounds (22.3 PR). He’s hit this under in all four games.
I know he’s likely to be heavily involved, but he hasn’t shown enough against the Pacers (or in the playoffs as a whole) to warrant this high of a line.
Key stat: Williams has gone under 27.5 PR in 12 of 18 playoff games this season — and in 19 of 28 for his career.
Game 3 prop prediction
Caruso over 8.5 points (-121): A relatively quiet night from Williams would help this Caruso bet cash, so I’m hoping for some harmony here with these picks.
Caruso isn’t in the starting lineup, and he’s known more for his defence. But I’ve noticed a steady offensive floor from him in recent games.
Here are his numbers over the past 12 matchups:
- 10.1 PPG
- 24.7 minutes/game
- 5+ shots in 11 of 12
- 3+ attempted 3s in every game
Caruso has cashed this bet in 12 of 18 games this postseason, including both so far in the Finals.
He matched a playoff-high with 20 points in Game 2, and we don’t even need half of that in Game 3 to hit the over.
Haliburton under 8.5 assists (-143): This line would typically seem a bit low for Haliburton, but the Thunder have had the clamps on him so far this series.
The 2023-24 assist champ, who averaged 9.2 APG during the regular season, had just six assists apiece in Games 1 and 2.
In four games against the Thunder overall this season, he has 23 total assists and has gone under this mark all four times.
OKC allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season (24.6). They’ve allowed even fewer APG during the playoffs (21.8).
Haliburton has gone under an 8.5-assist line in eight of his past 12 games.
Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks made at 11:47 a.m. ET 06/10/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.