This year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club is shaping up to be the hardest we’ve seen in years.
The latest: Scottie Scheffler is a huge favourite at a course that will demand a well-rounded game and distance off-the-tee. I can’t get down with his +250 odds, though, and am instead turning to a trio of elite players north of 20-to-1.
Check out my U.S. Open predictions for the 2025 PGA Tour tournament beginning on June 12, featuring Xander Schauffele.
Oakmont Country Club betting preview
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Don’t be surprised if this year’s winner comes in around even par.
- Playing at 7,372 yards, Oakmont is a long par-70. Distance and accuracy off-the-tee are paramount, with extremely narrow fairways and five-inch-thick rough.
- The greens are huge — 8,500 square feet on average — but feature heavy undulations and run-offs and are surrounded by deep, penalizing bunkers.
- If golfers can hold the greens, lag putting will be paramount. On basically every hole, par is a great score.
- Dustin Johnson won the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont at 4-under par. Only three other golfers broke par during a week where the course played uncharacteristically “easy” due to rain.
U.S. Open predictions
Best bet: Schauffele to win (+2,000) & top-20 finish (+105)
Betting against the likes of Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, and Rory McIlroy is daunting.
But we shouldn’t forget that Schauffele is a month removed from holding two of the four major titles (PGA Championship, Open Championship) simultaneously.
The American cemented himself as a world-class player in 2024 and is back to playing great golf after suffering an injury to start the year.
Schauffele has six-straight top 30 finishes — highlighted by a T8 at the Masters — and ranks seventh in strokes gained: approach on the PGA Tour this season.
My one worry with Schauffele is his lack of accuracy off-the-tee. He’s bombing the ball but has struggled to find fairways while tinkering with new driver setups.
Still, his history at this tournament and pedigree winning major championships makes him a compelling pick at this price point.
Key stat: Schauffele has never finished worse than T14 in eight U.S. Open starts (seven top 10s, three top 5s).
More U.S. Open predictions
Ludvig Aberg to win (+2,500): It’s been a bizarre season for Aberg, but things are finally starting to turn the corner.
The towering Swede finished T13 at the Canadian Open the week after logging a T20 at the Memorial Tournament. Those aren’t eye-popping finishes, but it’s a signal that he’s playing consistent golf at the right time.
Aberg won at the Genesis Invitational in February, which was played at another U.S. Open-calibre course (Torrey Pines).
He’s a generational driver of the golf ball, blending distance with accuracy off-the-tee. I’m expecting a huge week from a player with three top-15 finishes in six major starts.
Collin Morikawa to win (+2,200): Morikawa seems like the forgotten man at this tournament, and I can’t really argue with that sentiment.
The two-time major champion has just one win since his 2021 Open Championship victory (2023 Zozo Championship) despite being a perennial top-10 player in the world.
Still, he has been knocking on the door all season with elite iron play and off-the-tee accuracy.
- Morikawa ranks sixth on SG: APP on the PGA Tour this season.
- He also ranks second in driving accuracy, hitting 72.87% of his fairways.
Keeping the ball in play here is mandatory, and Morikawa has the iron play to capitalize on good tee shots to score.
U.S. Open predictions made at 1:10 p.m. on 06/09/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.