One of the best modern-day baseball rivalries is renewed on Monday night, as the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres begin their season series at Petco Park.
The pregame narrative: These divisional foes have met three times in the postseason since 2020, and they could be on a collision course again this season. L.A. is one game ahead of San Diego in the NL West, but those fortunes could shift over the next few days.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Padres predictions, including props on Jake Cronenworth and Freddie Freeman in a +295 SGP.
Dodgers vs. Padres predictions
Parlay: Padres +1.5 | Cronenworth over 0.5 hits | Freeman over 0.5 hits (+295)
Padres +1.5 (-177): San Diego has been on the road for most of the month, so I’d imagine it feels good to return home.
- The Padres are 20-10 at Petco Park this season with a +36 run differential. They’ve won four of their past five home series.
- San Diego also happens to be a stellar run line team. According to Team Rankings, the Padres’ 37-27 run line record is second-best in the majors.
- As +1.5 run line underdogs, the Padres are 20-9.
- During the 2024 regular season, San Diego went 8-5 straight up vs. L.A. (including a 4-2 record at home).
Canadian right-hander Nick Pivetta (6-2, 3.16 ERA) is having a solid season for the Padres. In his 12 starts, the team has covered a +1.5 run line nine times.
MLB SGP legs
Cronenworth over 0.5 hits (-141): A handful of Padres have gotten a really good look at Dodgers starter Dustin May, and Cronenworth is one of them.
The infielder is 5-for-17 (.294) with a home run and a walk against May.
Cronenworth is 9-6 vs. this prop in his past 15 games. Through 40 games, he has a .373 on-base percentage, which would rank 25th in MLB if he had enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter.
As a left-hitting player, Cronenworth should have a bit of a platoon advantage against May tonight. So far this season, the University of Michigan product has a .256/.389/.430 slash line vs. RHPs.
Freeman over 0.5 hits (-200): Can Freeman really win a batting title in his age-35 season? It’d be a first in his career, so I’m going to say no.
But he does have an NL-best .345 BA right now, which makes him an exceptional addition to this SGP.
- Freeman has 1+ hits in 39 of 53 starts (73.6%).
- He’s hitless in back-to-back games but is still batting .325 over his past 20 starts.
There’s nothing to overthink about this one. Freeman is good for a hit most nights, and he’s tough to pitch around thanks to the depth throughout the Dodgers’ lineup.
Oh, and Freeman is 12-for-36 (.333) with five extra-base hits against Pivetta.
Dodgers vs. Padres predictions made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 06/09/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.