There’s a trio of late-night MLB games in a relatively quiet Monday slate, and I’ve got MLB prop bets from two of them.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Jorge Polanco started the year off remarkably well for the Seattle Mariners, but he’s been in an extended slump that has no signs of stopping. Elsewhere, Yusei Kikuchi is struggling with command issues that have prevented him from working deep into ballgames.
Check out my best MLB prop bets for June 9, which include a prediction on Josh Lowe.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Lowe over 0.5 runs (+100)
The left-hitting Lowe typically bats leadoff (or No. 2) when facing a right-handed pitcher, which means he’ll be in an optimal spot to score.
Given how much damage the Rays have done against Boston starter Brayan Bello in the past, that’s compelling enough for me.
Tampa Bay’s active roster has compiled 94 plate appearances against Bello, batting 30-for-84 (.357) with a .512 SLG.
Lowe has been among the best of the bunch, going 7-for-17 (.412) with a home run, two doubles and a walk (1.150 OPS). Obviously, he has to get on base for this prop to cash, so that head-to-head history matters.
After Lowe, Tampa’s next three hitters are likely to be Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda. They are collectively 12-for-30 (.444) vs. Bello with three extra-base hits.
Bello has a 3.91 ERA through nine starts, but it could easily be a lot worse. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the eighth percentile in xERA (5.71) and the fifth percentile in xBA (.301).
Now he’ll face a lineup that knows how to attack him, and Lowe should be a beneficiary.
Key stat: Lowe has scored 11 runs in his past 14 starts.
Best MLB picks
Kikuchi under 17.5 outs (-125): The Athletics have been brutal this season, but pitching is their main culprit. The lineup has been decent and should present some challenges for Kikuchi.
Over the past 14 days, here’s how the A’s rank within MLB in some notable categories:
- 30th (i.e., highest) in K rate — 28.2%
- 7th in walk rate — 9.5%
- 7th in wRC+ — 113
By walking and striking out a lot, the A’s are seeing a ton of pitches. And the 113 wRC+ indicates that they’re capable of doing damage.
Kikuchi has gone under 17.5 outs in four straight starts, thanks largely to an inability to stay in the zone. He has allowed 18 walks in that span.
Even if the A’s don’t put up a bunch of runs, they can chase Kikuchi from this game early by practicing a little patience.
Polanco under 0.5 runs (-125): Polanco was one of the best surprise stories through the first five-ish weeks of the season … but the crash has been real.
- First 26 games: .369/.407/.750 slash line, 15 runs, 14 extra-base hits
- Past 26 games: .151/.207/.209 slash line, six runs, three extra-base hits
Polanco has gone under 0.5 runs in 16 of his past 21 starts (76.2%). He’s a strong fade candidate right now.
Arizona starter Merrill Kelly had some rough starts at the end of May, but he’s coming off 7.0 innings of one-hit ball against Atlanta. Kelly has a 2.51 ERA over his past 10 outings.
MLB prop picks made at 10:12 a.m. ET on 06/09/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.