The Boston Red Sox are running into one of the hottest pitchers in baseball when they face the New York Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball.
The pregame narrative: Carlos Rodon has won seven consecutive decisions and is a key reason why the Yankees are home favourites tonight. Aaron Judge was quiet last night, but is still flirting with a .400 average well into the season.
Check out my Red Sox vs. Yankees prop bets, featuring Rodon and Judge.
Red Sox vs. Yankees prop bets
Best Bet: Judge over 1.5 total bases (+100)
What am I missing here?
Judge has easily been the best hitter on the planet this season, so I’ll take these even-money odds pretty much every time.
I might’ve hesitated last night, when Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet was on the mound. But tonight it’ll be rookie Hunter Dobbins, who has a 4.06 ERA and a .435 opponent SLG through 44.1 innings.
In other words, this isn’t a matchup to shy away from.
Let’s get back to Judge, who has an absurd .390/.488/.746 slash line this season. As you might imagine, he leads the majors in all three categories, along with total bases, hits and bWAR.
Judge has 176 total bases in 63 games … that’s 2.8 per game.
The reigning AL MVP is also a Baseball Savant darling, ranking in the 98th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xBA, xSLG and average exit velocity.
He also walks a lot (15.2%, 96th percentile), and that’s often the greatest risk with taking the over on Judge’s bases prop.
But on the bright side, Dobbins’ low walk rate (5.2%), which ranks in the 87th percentile, is arguably his greatest attribute.
This seems like a fantastic price to back MLB’s best hitter.
Key stat: Judge has gone over 1.5 bases in 41 of 63 games (65.1%).
Best MLB picks
Rodon over 7.5 Ks (-106): Rodon is absolutely rolling right now, posting a 1.27 ERA in his past nine starts. He’s cashed this bet in four of his past five, and I’ll happily buy in again.
The left-hander has two elite swing-and-miss pitches: changeup and slider. Overall, he ranks in the 90th percentile in whiff rate and the 92nd percentile in K rate.
Boston has the fourth-highest K rate this season (23.6%).
Recently, the Red Sox have been even more strikeout-happy than that. They have a 27.0 K% in their past 10 games, which is higher than any team’s season-long rate.
Red Sox vs. Yankees prop bets made at 3:50 p.m. ET on 06/08/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.