A pair of leadoff hitters has my attention for Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Jackson Holliday has really turned things around and is leading a suddenly resurgent Baltimore Orioles squad. J.P. Crawford, meanwhile, is getting on base at an impressive clip and should see the run production follow.
Check out my best MLB prop bets for June 7, featuring a prediction on Jasson Dominguez.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Holliday over 1.5 total bases (-108)
Holliday moved up the the Orioles’ leadoff spot on an indefinite basis last month, and his numbers since then back up the move:
- .275 BA
- .835 OPS
- 2+ bases in 9 of 18 games
He’s still not batting quite like a typical leadoff hitter, though, with a 5.3% walk rate (19th percentile, per Baseball Savant). In fact, he’s only walked twice in 84 plate appearances since the lineup change.
My initial thought was to bet on Holliday to score a run, but the -139 price wasn’t particularly enticing when you consider his lack of walks.
It’s also worth noting that Athletics starter Luis Severino ranks in the 71st percentile for walk rate (6.9%) and the 14th percentile for strikeout rate (16.5%), so there’s a good chance Holliday will get something to hit.
The venue, Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, also helps. According to Baseball Savant, it’s the most offence-friendly park in the majors this season.
You don’t have to tell that to Severino, whose home/road splits are a real Jekyll-and-Hyde situation:
- Home (8 starts): 6.99 ERA, .787 opponent OPS
- Road (5 starts): 0.87 ERA, .461 opponent OPS
Key stat: The left-hitting Holliday has a .474 SLG and a 129 wRC+ vs. righties this year. By comparison, he has a .349 SLG and 88 wRC+ vs. lefties.
Best MLB picks
Crawford over 0.5 runs (-129): Crawford is cruising right now, batting 13-for-27 (.481) in his past seven games with four walks.
He’s only scored in three of those matchups, but I’ll gladly buy in on the opportunities he’s creating from Seattle’s leadoff spot.
Even if Crawford’s bat cools a bit, he’s got an elite eye at the plate and should find another way on base. His 15.1% walk rate ranks in the 96th percentile in the majors.
Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz has issued 18 walks over his past five starts. And left-hitting players (like Crawford) have a .313/.392/.521 slash line against him this year.
Dominguez under 0.5 hits (+112): Garrett Crochet is on the mound for the Red Sox tonight, which had me looking for someone to fade on the Yankees’ side. I think Dominguez fits the bill.
The switch-hitting outfielder is weaker from his right side, batting .143 with a 29.3% K rate vs. lefties in 49 career games.
Dominguez has never faced Crochet, whose 1.98 ERA and AL-high 101 strikeouts have him firmly in Cy Young conversations.
I expect Crochet to be able to keep the swing-happy 22-year-old guess. Four of Crochet’s five pitches are above-average in whiff rate, and Dominguez whiffs on 30.8% of his swings (13th percentile).
MLB prop picks made at 11:42 a.m. ET on 06/07/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.