Two starting pitchers and Juan Soto are featured in Friday’s top MLB prop picks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Spencer Schwellenbach enters in top form, sporting a 2.16 ERA over his last five starts with some big swing and miss. He’s set up well again tonight against the San Francisco Giants at their pitcher-friendly home park.
Check out my best MLB prop bets for June 6, featuring a prediction on Los Angeles Angels righty Kyle Hendricks.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Schwellebach over 5.5 Ks (-143)
I’m surprised this price is available, but don’t anticipate that being the case by first pitch at Oracle Park.
Schwellenbach has big strikeout upside: He has punched out 11 batters in back-to-back starts and has another 10-K outing this season.
The sophomore had a pair of double-digit strikeout games in his 2024 rookie year, finishing with a well-above-average 25.4 K%.
His Ks are down a bit this season, but he’s still above average at missing bats and generally works deep into ballgames.
Schwellenbach has gone six-plus innings in five straight starts and 10 of 12 on the season.
At a run-suppressing park against a team with the 12th-highest K rate in the majors — and below-average power vs. righties — this is an attractive play to me.
Key stat: Schwellenbach’s 11-K performance two starts ago came against the San Diego Padres, the most difficult team in the NL to strike out.
Best MLB picks
Hendricks under 17.5 outs (-118): The veteran has recorded 17-plus outs in five of his last six starts, clearing this line in half of them.
But his performances haven’t exactly been pretty. The 12th-year veteran has allowed three-plus runs in five straight outings and is vulnerable to a blowup each time he takes the mound.
- Lowest K/9 rate of his career
- Highest HR/9 rate of his career
- 2nd-highest BB/9 rate of his career
Hendricks enters tonight’s start against the Seattle Mariners with a bottom-of-the-barrel whiff rate and a 5.34 ERA. Getting this many outs from an arm that struggles to miss bats is asking a lot.
The Angels were off Thursday, so the bullpen comes in with more rest than usual.
Seattle has the seventh-best offence in baseball by wRC+ and is top 10 in homers.
Soto over 1.5 total bases (-120): This price on Soto at Coors Field? The superstar’s struggles and high walk rate lead to this number, but this still feels like a steal.
That’s especially the case when you consider Colorado’s starter: Antonio Senzatela.
The Rockies right-hander has allowed four-plus runs in nine of 12 starts, including seven straight.
- Senzatela has a 7.14 ERA (the highest among qualified starters is 5.51).
- The New York Mets pounded him for seven runs and eight hits (two homers) in his last start. One of those home runs was hit by Soto.
- Left-handed batters are hitting .409 off Senzatela with a 1.022 OPS.
Soto is hitting .229 with a disappointing .797 OPS, but perhaps a breakout is coming. His batted ball metrics are elite, and he’s slugging .773 with a 1.257 OPS over the past week.
MLB prop picks made at 1:12 p.m. ET on 06/06/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.