After a terrific homestand, the Toronto Blue Jays are in Minnesota on Friday night to face the Twins.
The pregame narrative: Toronto went 6-1 in its past two series at Rogers Centre and will now face a Minnesota squad that just wrapped up a 10-game road trip. Bailey Ober has been in a nice groove for the Twins, who are favourites in Friday’s game.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Twins for June 6, with a fade of Ober and a plus-money pick on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Blue Jays picks vs. Twins
Best Bet: Ober under 4.5 Ks (-154)
The Blue Jays are dialled at the plate right now. After they thrashed the Phillies, 9-1, on Thursday, Philadelphia starter Jesus Luzardo wondered aloud whether he was tipping pitches.
Look at the seven-game homestand Toronto just put together on the offensive side of things:
- 7.6 runs/game
- .328 BA
- .972 OPS
- 10.9 K%
- 9.8 BB%
With numbers like that, the Jays are a threat to chase any starting pitcher out of a game early. But even if that doesn’t happen, their strikeout rate is low enough that I don’t trust Ober to clear tonight’s line regardless.
Ober has gone under 4.5 Ks in four straight starts.
He did dice the Blue Jays last year, tallying 18 Ks over two starts, but his stuff hasn’t been nearly as baffling for hitters in 2025. His K% is down 8.3 percentage points (to 18.6%) and his whiff rate is down 3.9 percentage points (to 25.1%).
Ober is still garnering an elite chase rate — 94th percentile, per Baseball Savant — but I don’t see that as being much of a problem.
Toronto has the highest chase contact rate in the majors (62.4%, where the league average is 55.1%).
Key stat: Toronto has the lowest K rate in the majors this season (18.2%).
Quick pick
Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+125): Expected data only gets you so far, but there’s enough of a chasm between that and Guerrero’s actual results that I feel compelled to buy in.
Over his past 15 games, Guerrero is only 5-10 vs. this prop. But that number really should be a lot better.
- In that span, Guerrero’s slash line is .224/.328/.362. But his expected slash line is .367/.453/.659.
- He has a 96.1 mph average exit velocity in those 15 games, as well as a 61.5% hard-hit rate. Only Shohei Ohtani has a higher hard-hit rate than that over the full season.
Guerrero is adept at drawing walks, which is always a risk. But Ober’s 88th-percentile walk rate (5.2%) lessens that concern.
If you expect Guerrero’s misfortune to turn around at some point, this is a fair price to buy the perceived dip.
Blue Jays picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET on 06/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.