Sean O’Malley looks to reclaim his bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili in the main event of UFC 316.
The pre-fight narrative: After one title defence, Dvalishvili welcomes a familiar foe to the octagon in former champion, O’Malley. The latter looks to reclaim his strap after taking the last nine months off to recover from surgery.
Check out my UFC 316 predictions and the fight card for the June 8 event in New Jersey.
UFC 316 predictions
Best bet: Dvalishvili to win by decision (-150)
O’Malley blamed his loss to Dvalishvili at UFC 306 on an injury that he has spent almost a year recovering from.
But I’m not sure that’s a valid excuse for the former bantamweight title holder.
- Dvalishvili dominated their first bout, outlanding O’Malley 82-47 on the feet while mixing in six takedowns on 15 attempts.
- The Georgian is nicknamed “the Machine” for a reason, as he’s one of the only fighters who can push a never-ending pace with both his striking and wrestling.
- Since his last defeat back in 2018, Dvalishvili has put together a dozen straight wins. During that time, he outstruck all of his 12 opponents while landing 80 takedowns to his opponents’ five.
- The bantamweight champion is only two fights into his title reign, and he already holds the UFC record for takedowns (92), two more than the legendary Georges St. Pierre.
O’Malley has a respectable takedown defence (61%), but it doesn’t matter when his counterpart shoots 15-plus times in each fight while maintaining a +1.85 significant strike differential.
There’s a lot of juice on this prop, but everything points to a repeat of their first bout, with Dvalishvili set to control the octagon for 25 minutes with little resistance.
Key stat: Dvalishvili has seen 11 of his 12 UFC wins come by decision.
Go to full UFC 316 betting markets
Quick pick
Luque to win (+225): Kevin Holland doesn’t deserve to be an almost 3-to-1 favourite here, and I believe that for a few reasons:
- Since the start of 2022, Holland is 4-6 in the UFC.
- His last win was a decision victory over a 36-year-old Gunnar Nelson, who was coming off over two years on the shelf.
Holland’s only other win in 2024 came against Michal Oleksiejczuk. The Polish striker knocked him down in the first round before Holland cinched in an armbar while Oleksiejczuk was chasing the ground and pound finish.
The American hasn’t had a convincing win in quite some time, and I think his opponent has the tools to pull off the upset here.
Vincente Luque looked on track for a title match before running into Belal Muhammad in the main event of a fight night in 2022.
He has won two of his last three bouts, with the sole defeat coming against Joaquin Buckley, who’s on a shortlist of title contenders at welterweight.
Luque is the better striker and has a lethal submission game to complement his 53% takedown accuracy. That’s an added advantage for the Brazilian if he chooses to use it.
In my opinion, this should be closer to a pick’em. For that reason, I’ll side with the underdog at an inflated price.
UFC 316 main card
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| Fighter | Odds | Weight class | Odds | Fighter |
| Merab Dvalishvili (C) | -295 | Bantamweight | +225 | Sean O’Malley (1) |
| Julianna Pena (C) | +525 | Bantamweight (W) | -770 | Kayla Harrison (2) |
| Kelvin Gastellum | +310 | Middleweight | -420 | Joe Pyfer |
| Mario Bautista (10) | +155 | Bantamweight | -195 | Patchy Mix |
| Vicente Luque | +210 | Lightweight | -275 | Kevin Holland |
UFC picks made at 1:56 p.m. ET on 06/05/25.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.